Chelsea vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Chelsea and Real Sociedad close out their pre-season schedules at Stamford Bridge on Sunday morning New Zealand time, with Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea a week away from their Premier League opener against Fulham.

It’s Alonso’s first match in charge at the Bridge, and a stronger squad is available now with World Cup players filtering back to Cobham. 

In this Chelsea vs Real Sociedad preview, I’m looking at form and team news ahead of kick-off. I’ve got a goals-market pick at decent value for those after football betting tips before the new season.

Chelsea

I’m still trying to work out what Alonso’s Chelsea are. 

Five pre-season outings across Australia and Asia produced two wins and two defeats, plus a draw. Joao Pedro scored a hat trick in the wild 6-4 victory over Western Sydney Wanderers and has looked the part all summer. A 3-0 win over AC Milan in Jakarta was more controlled. But defeats to Spurs and Juventus, and a messy 3-3 with Johor Darul Ta’zim where two centre-backs went off injured, have complicated the picture.

Cole Palmer wasn’t selected for England’s World Cup squad after an injury-disrupted season and has used pre-season to get right. He’s the one player I’d bet on starting the Fulham opener. Rogers has arrived from Villa this summer, with Welbeck adding experienced depth up front.

Chelsea finished 10th last season. No European football next term. I’d expect Alonso to use this final friendly to give minutes to World Cup returnees and test a few combinations before the real thing.

Team News: Anselmino is out with a hamstring injury suffered in Malaysia. Colwill, Emegha, Henderson and Wiley are also sidelined. Caicedo, Hato, Neto, Fernandez and James have returned from World Cup duty but are unlikely to feature for more than brief cameos.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Acheampong, Fofana, Tosin, Chavarria; Lavia, Essugo; Palmer, Estevao, Gittens; Joao Pedro.

Real Sociedad

Copa del Rey winners. That’s the headline from Pellegrino Matarazzo’s first half-season in charge. 

He inherited a side in the relegation places in December, finished 10th in La Liga and beat Atletico Madrid on penalties in April’s cup final to seal Europa League qualification for 2026-27.

Pre-season results have gone both ways. 

Wins over Wolves (2-1) and Aston Villa (4-2) in England were encouraging, but back-to-back defeats to Koln in Germany followed. I’m not reading too much into those. Captain Mikel Oyarzabal only returned from World Cup duty with Spain on August 10, and several key players weren’t named in the travelling squad.

Whether Oyarzabal features at Stamford Bridge depends on his body. Without him, Orri Oskarsson has been leading the line and looks a capable alternative.

Team News: Odriozola is a long-term absentee with an ACL injury. Kubo and Guedes were not included in the squad for this trip. Oyarzabal is back in training but his availability is a game-day decision.

Predicted Lineup: Marrero; Traore, Aguerd, Morato, Munoz; Turrientes, Herrera; Barrenetxea, Soler, Zakharyan; Oskarsson.

• Chelsea have scored at least three goals in three of their five pre-season friendlies.
• Over 2.5 goals has occurred in four of Chelsea’s five pre-season games this summer.
• These clubs have met just once - a 2014 friendly at Stamford Bridge that Chelsea won 2-0 through Diego Costa.
• Real Sociedad beat both English opponents in pre-season, winning 2-1 at Wolves and 4-2 against Villa.
• Chelsea conceded in four of five pre-season outings, keeping one clean sheet against AC Milan.

I’m tipping Chelsea to win, but not without conceding. 

Alonso will want a confident performance at home before the Fulham opener, and the available squad is strong even without the World Cup players going the full 90. Joao Pedro and Palmer have been sharp through pre-season and I can’t see La Real’s depleted squad keeping them quiet for long.

I’m wary of writing Sociedad off, though. They put four past Villa at Bescot a couple of weeks back and Oskarsson has been a threat up front. A 2-1 or 3-1 Chelsea win feels about right.

For those browsing new betting sites in New Zealand, the goals markets is the angle I like most - more on that below.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.80

Chelsea’s pre-season has been all about goals. Over 2.5 has come in during four of five friendlies - a 6-4 and a 3-3 among them. They conceded in four of those five too.

Sociedad’s outings tell a similar story. They put four past Villa and won 2-1 at Wolves before losing 1-2 to Koln. With Alonso needing to give minutes to new and returning players in a rotational affair, I’m expecting an open game with space in transition.

$1.80 won’t retire you, but I’m backing it confidently at the legal betting sites available in NZ.