Thursday May 28, 7:00am NZT, Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Crystal Palace to win
Palace beat Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 on aggregate in the semis and have scored 25 Conference League goals this season - more than anyone else in the competition. Rayo Vallecano put two past Strasbourg across both semi-final legs. I’m not saying Rayo can’t score, but the gap in attacking output is obvious.
Chris Richards is rated 50-50 after tearing two ankle ligaments against Brentford on May 17. Glasner hasn’t confirmed he’ll play. Adam Wharton is expected to be involved off the bench at worst, though he came off with an ankle problem against Arsenal on Sunday. Rayo’s Ilias Akhomach is a doubt with a quad injury, but the positive news for them is that Alvaro Garcia has returned to full fitness after missing several La Liga matches.
At $1.90, Palace are generous on every football betting tips page I’ve checked and I agree.
Both teams to score
I’ll be upfront - this is my wobbliest leg. Rayo were excellent defensively in the semi-final against Strasbourg, recording two clean sheets across both legs to advance 2-0 on aggregate. But their knockout record before that was messier - they conceded three in the quarter-final second leg against AEK Athens in a chaotic 3-1 defeat, and shipped two against Samsunspor in the round of 16.
Palace have gone eight straight competitive games without a clean sheet, including the 1-2 defeat to Arsenal last weekend and the 2-1 semi-final second leg against Shakhtar. On the other side, Alemao scored in both semi-final legs and Alvaro Garcia - now fit again - has 12 goals across all competitions this season. I can see Rayo nicking one once Palace go ahead and the game opens up.
At $1.90 on NZ betting sites, I’m backing BTTS.
Ismaila Sarr anytime scorer
Nine Conference League goals. Scored against AEK Larnaca and Fiorentina in the earlier rounds, then in both legs against Shakhtar in the semis. No other Palace player has more than two in the competition. He’s averaging over three shots per 90 in Europe and his movement off Jean-Philippe Mateta has been excellent all campaign.
Sarr at $2.40 on betting apps NZ completes the SGM. I’d have been surprised if the price was that high given his record, but I’m not complaining.
