England vs Croatia Prediction: World Cup Betting Tips & Odds

England and Croatia open their World Cup 2026 campaigns on Thursday morning New Zealand time at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The 2018 semi-final will be fresh in each team’s memory in what is one of international football’s most loaded rivalries. Croatia won that night in Moscow, but England have taken both competitive meetings since. Eight years on, the players look very different, and I think the balance of power has shifted clearly in one direction.

In this England vs Croatia preview, I look at both squads, with a goals-market angle at over $3.00 for those scanning football sports betting options this week.

England

This is a stronger England squad, and I think it’s because of their omissions. Foden and Palmer were both controversially axed, but it hasn’t weakened the group. Instead, now there are no passengers or selection headaches clogging up the bench.

Their qualifying record was stunning. Eight wins from eight and not a single goal conceded across the entire campaign. And the warm-up friendlies in Florida were encouraging, with Harry Kane heading home against New Zealand before a comfortable 3-0 win over Costa Rica.

I have a note of caution though. A 1-0 loss to Japan and a 1-1 draw with Uruguay in March hinted at a side that can struggle against teams willing to press high. Croatia will compete for every second ball in midfield.

Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka are their obvious dangers. But I’m watching Morgan Rogers closely - he’s had an outstanding season at Villa, and Tuchel handing him the 17 shirt says a lot about his standing in this group.

Team News: No major concerns. Stones and James both trained fully. Foden and Palmer were left out of the squad, along with Alexander-Arnold and Maguire.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; James, Stones, Guehi, O’Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Rashford; Kane.

Croatia

Croatia’s qualifying numbers were impressive - 26 scored and just four conceded. Only a goalless draw with Czechia prevented a perfect record.

Their pre-tournament form is a worry, though. They lost 2-0 to Belgium and 3-1 to Brazil in friendlies. A late Mario Pasalic volley rescued a 2-1 win over Slovenia on June 7, but they were second best for long periods of that game.

Luka Modric will play what is almost certainly his final World Cup at age 40. I’m unsure whether the old magic can stretch 90 minutes in the Dallas heat. 

Josko Gvardiol brings Premier League pedigree through Manchester City, but he’s only managed a handful of minutes since returning from the broken leg he suffered in January. Match fitness is the obvious question.

Team News: Gvardiol returned to action at the end of the Premier League season but played limited minutes. No other significant concerns from camp.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; Perisic, Pasalic, Baturina; Kramaric.

• England won all eight World Cup qualifiers without conceding a single goal.
• Croatia have lost two of their last four matches against top-tier opposition.
• England have won the last two competitive meetings, including 1-0 at Euro 2020.
• Croatia’s only World Cup victory over England came in the 2018 semi-final after extra time.
• Four of the last five meetings between these two produced under 2.5 goals.

I’m predicting an England victory. Tuchel’s squad is deeper and fresher, and their qualifying campaign wasn’t an outlier.

Sure, Croatia have tournament pedigree, and I’d never want to face Modric in a knockout game. But this is a group stage opener where England can control things through Rice and Bellingham in the central areas.

I don’t think it’ll be pretty. Croatia are too streetwise to get rolled over, and I can see them frustrating England for long periods before the quality gap eventually tells. 1-0 or 2-0 feels about right.

For those using new betting sites to get across the World Cup, this is a game where patience pays off more than ambition.

England Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ $3.30

England kept clean sheets in all eight qualifiers and both June friendlies. Croatia managed just one goal across their two warm-up matches against top opposition. 

I can see England winning this without needing to open up, and when Tuchel doesn’t need to chase a game, he won’t.

Under 2.5 has come in during four of the last five meetings between these sides. At $3.30, combining it with an England win is a price I’m happy to back on the legal betting sites available in New Zealand.