England vs Croatia Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

England host Croatia in the Nations League at Wembley on Friday morning at 8:45am NZT, just under six weeks after thrashing them 7-0 in Rijeka.

I don’t see a repeat of that scoreline. Croatia arrive without two of their most experienced attackers, and they’ve got a relegation fight with Czechia in Osijek three days later to think about.

My pick in this England vs Croatia preview targets Croatia’s blunt attack, and it pays just over $2 for anyone keen on football tips this week.

England

England haven’t conceded since Spain beat them 3-2 at Wembley in late September.

That defeat was messy at the back, but the three games since have been comfortable. Czechia were down to 10 men from the 25th minute in Prague, and Croatia managed just one shot on target in Rijeka.

Harry Kane needs one more cap to pass Peter Shilton’s record of 125, and I’d be stunned if he doesn’t start. He’s scored in all three of England’s Nations League wins and has 13 international goals in 2026.

Their right wing interests me more. Bukayo Saka scored twice in Rijeka but he’s injured, so I think Morgan Rogers gets the nod after setting up Kane’s first goal against Czechia.

I’d like to see Josh King given a run off the bench too. The 19-year-old Fulham midfielder has 57 touches in the opposition box this season, the most in the Premier League.

Team News: Saka, Rashford, Scott, Chalobah and Livramento are injured, Guehi has withdrawn with a hip problem, and Lewis-Skelly is suspended.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Quansah, Konsa, Branthwaite, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, J. Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.

Croatia

Slaven Bilic’s second spell in charge started with a 2-1 win in Prague on 26 September, and Croatia haven’t won since.

Spain beat them 4-1 in Seville three days later. Then came the 7-0 in Rijeka, their heaviest defeat on record, played in front of a crowd of mostly local children because of a UEFA sanction.

Their 2-1 loss to Spain in Split was a lot better. Ivan Perisic put them ahead after 17 minutes, but he was sent off for a second yellow on 79 minutes and Mikel Merino won it two minutes from time.

Croatia have scored four goals in four Nations League games, and two of their likeliest scorers aren’t available here.

Luka Modric is still captain at 41, and he’s still the player who decides how Croatia use the ball. Anyone betting live should watch how much of it he sees in the first 20 minutes.

Then there’s Sunday’s game. Croatia host Czechia in Osijek, and the bottom side in this group drops into League B. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bilic saves a couple of legs for that one.

Team News: Kramaric (knee) and Pongracic (hamstring) are out, while Ivanovic misses out with a mild concussion. Perisic is suspended, and Sutalo has pulled out injured.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Smolcic, Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Modric; Baturina, P. Sucic, Vlasic; Matanovic.

• Both of this year’s meetings have gone England’s way, 4-2 and 7-0.
• England have won eight of their 13 meetings with Croatia.
• Croatia have conceded 14 goals in four Nations League games.
• Kane has 91 goals in 125 England appearances.
• England have scored 12 unanswered goals in their last three games.

Rotation could turn this into a closer game than the last.

England travel to Madrid on Sunday with top spot still alive if they win here, so I expect a few changes. Even so, a reshuffled side beat Czechia 3-0 three days after Rijeka, and Croatia look weaker now than they did in October.

I did think about England -1.5. A 2-0 or 3-0 looks the most likely result to me, and with Sunday in mind I can see Croatia dropping deep and playing for damage limitation.

Bilic was in the dugout when Croatia won 3-2 at Wembley in 2007 and knocked England out of Euro 2008. That was a very different team, with a far stronger forward line than the one he’s bringing this week.

The draw at $6.20 doesn’t tempt me at all. I’m going England 3-0, and BTTS No at $1.65 is the goals angle I like most.

I’ve got a nagging feeling Modric will find a way to set up one decent chance, and that’s the risk with what follows.

England to Win to Nil @ $2.10

I’m struggling to see where a Croatia goal comes from. Perisic started in Rijeka and they still managed just one shot on target. He won’t be at Wembley. Kramaric isn’t in the squad either.

Croatia have scored in three of their four Nations League games, I’ll admit. But England are the one side they haven’t scored against, and Pickford has two clean sheets from his two appearances this campaign.

England to win to nil is around $2.10 across the top betting websites, and that’s where my money’s going.