Italy vs France Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Italy host France in the Nations League at San Siro on Friday morning at 8:45am NZT, with top spot in League A Group 1 up for grabs.

France lead the group by three points with two rounds left, so a win in Milan would seal first place for them. Italy can’t drop below third, but they need a result here to hold off Belgium for a quarter-final spot.

My pick in this Italy vs France preview is a goals-timing market at around $2.10, and France’s last few games are the reason I like it. I’d rather have it on before kickoff than chase it in-play on live betting sites.

Italy

Italy’s equaliser in Paris on 2 October came straight from their press.

Alessandro Bastoni pounced after Lucas Da Cunha was caught in possession inside his own half, and it earned them a 1-1 draw at the Stade de France. They were second best for most of that game. Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves, and Italy managed three shots on target all night.

I’d expect more of that pressing in Milan, with a home crowd urging them on.

Three days later they beat Turkey 3-1 in Bologna. Gianluca Scamacca and Riccardo Calafiori scored before Francesco Pio Esposito added the third late on, and he was Flashscore’s player of the match.

Michael Kayode looks set to start at right-back, and he’ll probably spend most of the night dealing with Desire Doue. That matchup is a concern for me. Kayode got forward well in Paris, but France will look to get Doue running at him early.

Team News: Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Kean, Raspadori, Ruggeri, Mandragora and Zoma are out.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Zaniolo, Pio Esposito, Cambiaghi.

France

France have conceded two goals in four group games, and one of those came from their own mistake in Paris.

Kylian Mbappe is back for this one. He scored the winner in Turkey on 25 September before an injury cut his camp short, and he’s scored regularly for Real Madrid since returning, including in their 3-0 win at Valencia on 7 November.

Michael Olise has four goals in his last three games for France. His free kick in Paris beat Donnarumma off the underside of the bar, and he scored twice off the bench against Belgium on 5 October.

Plenty of the football expert tips I’ve read this week have France strolling to a win. I wouldn’t go that far with a patched-up back four. Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate look likely to pair up in the middle, and Upamecano was sent off late in the reverse fixture.

Team News: Kounde and Akliouche are injured. Dembele, Saliba and Lacroix also miss out.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Gusto, Upamecano, Konate, Truffert; Tchouameni, Zaire-Emery; Olise, Cherki, Doue; Mbappe.

• Italy have lost their last two matches in Milan.
• Italy lost 2-0 at home to Belgium in their group opener.
• Italy have scored eight goals in their last three matches.
• Italy haven’t kept a clean sheet in four group games.

I’m tipping France at $1.85 because of the depth they can bring off the bench.

Italy should cause France problems early. They pressed France into mistakes in Paris, and San Siro will be loud with first place still on the line. Pio Esposito gives them someone to aim at, and they’ve got Scamacca as an option if they need a goal late. I can see them scoring, and both teams to score at $1.80 looks fair to me for anyone after a goals angle.

But I don’t think Italy can hold that intensity for 90 minutes against a squad this deep. Once France start rotating their attackers, the gaps should appear in a back four that hasn’t kept a clean sheet all campaign.

I’m going 3-1 France. Three goals away from home is a lot to ask, and I’d be lying if I said I was confident on the margin.

Second Half to Be the Highest Scoring Half @ $2.10

Seven of the eight goals in France’s last three games came after half-time.

Belgium led them 1-0 at the break on 5 October before Doue and Rayan Cherki came off the bench and scored inside four minutes. The game in Paris was goalless at half-time too, with Olise’s free kick and Bastoni’s equaliser both arriving after the break.

Italy’s win over Turkey in Bologna went the same way, with three of the four goals coming in the second half.

I expect Italy to fade as the game goes on, and France have the fresh legs to punish that late.

I’d take anything over $2 for this on the best betting sites in NZ.