Football Multi Bet: $5.65 Tip for Friday

There are two Europa League semi-final second legs on Friday morning NZT and I’ve pulled three tips from them for this football multi bet. 

Both home sides trail on aggregate but only by a single goal, and both have been near-perfect in front of their own fans in this competition. 

At $5.65 it’s a shorter multi than usual – semi-finals do that – but I think there’s a solid case for every leg.

Friday May 8, 7:00am NZT, Villa Park

Villa have won nine consecutive European home fixtures and I’m trusting that record here even though they’ve lost three in a row across all competitions. Unai Emery rotated heavily for the 2-1 defeat to Spurs at the weekend, and Ollie Watkins and Pau Torres will come straight back into this side.

Nottingham Forest are dangerous. Chris Wood’s penalty won the first leg and they’ve scored 13 goals in their last four games, including a 3-1 win at Chelsea on Monday. But Villa beat them 3-1 at this ground in January and Emery has won this competition four times. I’m not backing against that pedigree at home.

I’m also tipping over 2.5 goals. Four of the last six meetings between these two produced three or more, and with Villa needing a result, I don’t see a cagey night. Amadou Onana is a doubt after his calf injury in the first leg, and Boubacar Kamara is out for the season. If Onana doesn’t pass his fitness test, Villa’s midfield thins out considerably – and that could leave gaps at both ends. 

At $1.90 on betting apps in NZ, the over feels right as a second tip from this game.

Friday May 8, 7:00am NZT, Europa-Park Stadion

Six European home games this season, six wins. Freiburg have scored 14 and conceded two at the Europa-Park Stadion in this competition, and I think that record is good enough to overturn a one-goal deficit. Braga’s 92nd-minute winner in the first leg was harsh – Vincenzo Grifo had equalised early and Noah Atubolu saved a penalty before half-time. Freiburg were the better side for most of the second half before Mario Dorgeles pounced late.

Ricardo Horta won’t be involved after going off injured in that first leg. He’s been central to Braga’s campaign with four goals and four assists, and losing your captain for an away semi-final is a problem. Most football tips have Freiburg as favourites here – I agree.

I’ll admit this is my wobblier pick. Braga won 4-2 at Real Betis in the quarters, so they can perform on the road. But at $1.75 on best live betting sites, Freiburg’s home record and Horta’s absence are enough to convince me.