Football Same Game Multi: $8.60 Tip for Thursday

One game, one trophy, three legs. I’ve put together a same game multi for Thursday morning’s Europa League final in Istanbul and I reckon this one will age well. Aston Villa are favourites for good reason, but the goals market should play tight. Throw in Ollie Watkins, who’s in the form of his life, and our combined odds are a tick over $8.50 - not bad for a single match.

Thursday May 21, 7:00am NZT, Besiktas Park, Istanbul

Aston Villa to win

I’m going Villa here and I don’t think it’s going to be particularly close in the end. Unai Emery has won four of his five Europa League finals. Freiburg have never been in a European final before - their only reference point is a DFB-Pokal final loss to RB Leipzig on penalties in 2022. Villa have won 12 of their 14 matches in this competition and scored 28 goals, more than anyone else.

Freiburg’s form has been poor. Four defeats in their last seven across all competitions, including a 4-0 hammering at Dortmund and a 3-2 loss at Hamburg. Villa put four past Liverpool last Friday to secure Champions League football, and Emery can now focus entirely on Istanbul. 

At $1.75 when you bet on football same game multis, Villa are the obvious anchor.

Under 2.5 total goals

Europa League finals tend to be cagey. Last season’s finished 1-0. Over the last decade these deciders have averaged 2.3 goals, and three of the last eight went to penalties. Tight games are the norm here.

Villa have conceded just eight goals in 14 Europa League matches this season and have recorded eight clean sheets. Freiburg will be disciplined - Johan Manzambi and Maximilian Eggestein will try to crowd midfield and force Villa wide. Emery will be patient. He’ll take a 0-0 into the second half if he has to. 

Under 2.5 at $1.75 through free bets promotions is the steadiest leg in this multi.

Ollie Watkins anytime scorer

This is where we get our value. Watkins scored twice against Liverpool on Friday and now has four goals in his last three appearances. He’s got 19 goals across all competitions this season and five in the Europa League alone - including a brace against Bologna in the quarters and a header against Lille in the round of 16.

Freiburg are without Yuito Suzuki and Patrick Osterhage. Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart will do their best but Watkins has been too sharp lately. I’m not completely sure the game opens up enough for him to bag a second, but once feels right. 

At $2.80 on betting sites, he’s my pick to close out this SGM.