Sunday May 17, 2:00am NZT, Wembley Stadium
Man City to Win
City have won five of their last six across all competitions. They beat Brentford 3-0 on Saturday and Crystal Palace 3-0 on Wednesday night, with Pep Guardiola resting Erling Haaland and Jeremy Doku at the Etihad to save legs for this final. Their only dropped points came in a 3-3 draw at Everton.
Chelsea have one win in their last five, and that was a 1-0 FA Cup semi-final against a Leeds side currently 14th in the league.
City won 3-0 at Stamford Bridge last month and Chelsea barely threatened. Calum McFarlane hasn’t won a Premier League game since taking over as interim boss, and now he’s up against Guardiola in his fourth consecutive FA Cup final. I don’t see an upset here.
City at $1.80 on sports betting sites is a strong start to this multi in my eyes.
Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer
Here’s where I hedge a bit. Haaland has 26 Premier League goals this season and he’s the most prolific striker in the division by some distance. But his Wembley record is strange. Eight appearances for City at the national stadium and he hasn’t scored or assisted in any of them. He handed the penalty to Omar Marmoush in last year’s final against Palace and it got saved.
Guardiola rested him on Wednesday specifically for this game. Against a Chelsea defence that has conceded eight goals in four Premier League games under McFarlane, he’ll get chances.
At $1.90 on football betting sites, I’m happy to take the price.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
City have scored 14 across all competitions in their last six outings. Chelsea’s defending has been all over the place. Forest and Brighton both put three past them in the league, and City did the same at Stamford Bridge a month ago.
Doku has five goals in his last six appearances and was rested on Wednesday alongside Rayan Cherki. Chelsea might nick one through Enzo Fernandez or Cole Palmer on a set piece - Fernandez scored from a free kick at Liverpool last week. But this isn’t a Chelsea side that will shut City out.
Take the over 2.5 at $2.10 on betting bonuses pages.
