France vs Morocco Prediction: World Cup Betting Tips & Odds

Odds provided by Betista

France and Morocco meet at Boston Stadium on Friday morning New Zealand time in a World Cup quarter-final rematch of Qatar 2022, where France won 2-0 on their way to the final.

In this France vs Morocco preview, I look at a tie that could be closer than the odds suggest. I’ve got a goals angle at $2.00 for those keen on some football betting this week too.

France

Five wins from five, 14 goals scored, two conceded. Kylian Mbappe has seven goals in the tournament and Ousmane Dembele has four, and they’ve been devastating together. They also hammered Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 before grinding out a 1-0 win over Paraguay in the Round of 16. 

I thought that the Paraguay result proved more than those routs did, though. They ground it out without Tchouameni when the game refused to open up, and that composure is what wins knockout tournaments.

Team News: Tchouameni is a major doubt with an adductor injury. Kone is the likely replacement but is on a yellow card.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Digne; Kone, Camavinga; Dembele, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe.

Morocco

This is a team that’s unbeaten in five matches and I don’t think they get enough credit. A 1-1 draw with Brazil, a penalty shootout win over the Netherlands, then a 3-0 thumping of Canada in the Round of 16 where Azzedine Ounahi scored twice. 

The concern is Ismael Saibari. He left the Canada match inside the opening 20 minutes with a thigh injury, has scored in all three group games, and is a real doubt here. Soufiane Rahimi replaced him and scored, but losing your most dangerous attacking midfielder before a quarter-final against France is far from ideal.

Team News: Saibari is a major doubt. Riad is also uncertain after missing the Canada match with a knee problem.

Predicted Lineup: Bounou; Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui; Bouaddi, El Aynaoui; Brahim Diaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss; Rahimi.

• France have won all five World Cup 2026 matches, conceding just twice.
• Morocco are the first African nation to advance to back-to-back World Cup quarter-finals.
• France won the only previous World Cup meeting between the two, 2-0 in the 2022 semi-final.

I’m picking France, but I’m a little nervous. 

Morocco are organised and dangerous on the counter. They’ve been comfortable in knockout football all tournament. 

But France’s attacking depth is frightening and they’ve proven they can win ugly and win well at this tournament. Without Saibari, I’m not sure Morocco have enough going forward to trouble a back four that’s conceded twice in five games. 

If you’re chasing betting bonuses this week, the goals markets look interesting here.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.00

France have averaged close to three goals a game at this World Cup and they’ll fancy themselves to score. Morocco won’t defend deep for 90 minutes. They’ll try to counter, and that will leave gaps for Mbappe and Dembele to exploit. Morocco scored three against Canada and have found the net in every knockout game. 

At $2.00, over 2.5 looks like the right price on the best betting apps available to New Zealand punters.