France vs Spain Prediction: World Cup Betting Tips & Odds

Odds provided by Betista

France and Spain meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in the first semi-final of the 2026 World Cup.

In this France vs Spain preview, I’ve got a goals-market angle at even money for those after football tips this week.

France

It’s six from six for France so far this World Cup. 

Kylian Mbappe has eight goals at this tournament - level with Lionel Messi, though Mbappe leads the Golden Boot standings on assists. Ousmane Dembele has five. Michael Olise’s five assists are second only to Mbappe.

Aurelien Tchouameni hasn’t featured since the Round of 32 with a groin problem, and I’m wary of what that means against Rodri. Mbappe came off against Morocco with an ankle knock but played it down.

Team News: Tchouameni is a doubt. Mbappe’s ankle described as minor. Olise, Kone and Barcola one booking from suspension.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Doue; Mbappe.

Spain

A goalless draw with Cape Verde has been the lone blemish for Spain so far. Mikel Oyarzabal has four goals, and Mikel Merino has scored late winners against Portugal and Belgium in successive knockout rounds.

Unai Simon went 649 consecutive World Cup minutes without conceding before the Belgium quarter-final. Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte have been excellent at centre-back.

Team News: Williams available off the bench. Pino out for the tournament. Fabian Ruiz started ahead of Pedri last time.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.

• Spain won the last two competitive meetings, including a 5-4 Nations League thriller in 2025.
• Over 2.5 goals has occurred in four of France’s six games this tournament.
• France have three consecutive clean sheets in the knockout rounds.

I’m going with France here. Mbappe and Dembele have 13 goals between them, and Olise’s creativity from the 10 spot has given them an attacking threat nobody here has answered.

Spain won the last two competitive meetings and I can’t ignore that. But France haven’t been this clinical since 2018. France 2-1, possibly through extra time.

For those looking to get involved on betting apps in NZ, the goals market is where I’d focus.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.00

These two produced 12 goals across their last two competitive meetings - 2-1 at Euro 2024 and 5-4 in the Nations League. France have scored two or more in five of six here.

At even money on the legal betting sites in New Zealand, I’m happy with that.