Girona vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Girona and Arsenal meet at Estadi Montilivi on Sunday morning New Zealand time in the 49th Costa Brava Trophy, with Arsenal beginning their public pre-season schedule after a title-winning 2025-26 campaign.

This is a strange fixture on paper. Girona were playing Champions League football against Arsenal 18 months ago, and now they’re preparing for life in the Segunda Division after a devastating relegation. Arsenal, meanwhile, are without most of their first-choice squad due to World Cup commitments. 

In this Girona vs Arsenal preview, I’ve got a look at both squads and what to expect from this uneven friendly. I’m eyeing up a goals-market angle for those after football betting tips ahead of the new season.

Girona

Girona’s decline over the past two years has been nothing short of staggering. 

From a third-place La Liga finish and Champions League football in 2023-24 to relegation in 2025-26, finishing 19th with 41 points. An eight-match winless run to close the season did them in.

Quique Alvarez replaced Michel and faces a colossal task. Pre-season results are a mixed bag so far, with a comfortable 3-1 over local side Olot followed by a 0-1 loss to Alaves. Azzedine Ounahi is still at the World Cup with Morocco, and Viktor Tsygankov wasn’t included in the initial pre-season squad - he’s being linked with a move to a Champions League club this summer. 

Their squad is undermanned for this one.

Vladyslav Vanat, their top scorer last season with 10 goals across all competitions, will likely lead the line. Yaser Asprilla and Bryan Gil add width. I expect Alvarez to use this fixture to trial his preferred shape ahead of the Segunda campaign, and Donny van de Beek should get a run in midfield.

Team News: Ounahi is unavailable due to World Cup duty. Tsygankov’s involvement is unclear given his transfer situation. No injuries reported from pre-season.

Predicted Lineup: Gazzaniga; Arnau Martinez, Antal, Frances, Alex Moreno; Fran Beltran, Ivan Martin; Asprilla, Misehouy, Bryan Gil; Vanat.

Arsenal

Arteta’s travelling squad is a skeleton crew. David Raya, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice, William Saliba and Gabriel are all still on post-World Cup breaks. 

What we’ve got instead is fringe players and academy talent, supplemented by Viktor Gyokeres, Kai Havertz and Piero Hincapie, who returned from World Cup duty to join the camp.

Christos Tzolis interests me most. The £34m signing from Club Brugge looked sharp in the private 3-0 win over MK Dons last week, setting up Reiss Nelson’s opener and combining well with Riccardo Calafiori down the left. Ethan Nwaneri curled in a screamer too. It’s early days, but Tzolis looks comfortable in Arteta’s system.

Ben White and Jurrien Timber both travelled to Spain but didn’t feature against MK Dons due to fitness concerns. Whether either is ready for minutes is unclear, and that leaves Arsenal light at right-back.

Team News: White and Timber are doubts. Most internationals are still on holiday.

Predicted Lineup: Kepa; White, Mosquera, Hincapie, Calafiori; Norgaard, Nwaneri; Nelson, Havertz, Tzolis; Gyokeres.

• Arsenal won 2-1 at Estadi Montilivi in the Champions League in January 2025, their only previous meeting.
• Girona managed nine wins from 38 La Liga matches in a relegation season.
• Arsenal conceded just 27 Premier League goals across their title-winning campaign.
• Girona defeated Olot 3-1 and lost 0-1 to Alaves in pre-season so far.
• Arsenal beat MK Dons 3-0 in a private friendly, with Tzolis assisting and Nwaneri scoring.

I’m tipping Arsenal to win, but I’ve got no strong feeling about the margin. 

Pre-season friendlies are notoriously hard to predict, and Arteta will almost certainly rotate the entire XI at half-time. Gyokeres and Havertz give Arsenal a clear attacking edge, even without Saka and Odegaard feeding them.

Girona aren’t going to roll over at home, though. Asprilla’s directness and Van de Beek’s experience in the middle could trouble a patched-up Arsenal defence. I just don’t think they have the quality to live with Arsenal’s front line across 90 minutes, even in a pre-season context.

A 2-1 Arsenal win feels about right. If you’re betting on these pre-season fixtures on NZ betting sites, don’t expect a spectacle.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.65

Pre-season friendlies are a great time to bet on goals. Both managers will want to get minutes into legs, not grind out results. Arteta will swap his XI at the break, and Alvarez is experimenting with personnel and shape.

Arsenal scored three against MK Dons with a weakened group and I can see them putting two or more past Girona without too much trouble. Their defending was leaky all last season - 55 goals conceded in 38 La Liga matches - and a new manager won’t have fixed that in two weeks of pre-season. Vanat and Asprilla’s threat on the counter gives Girona a path to at least one goal of their own.

At $1.65, over 2.5 is where I’m putting my money for those using legal betting sites in New Zealand.