Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Liverpool vs Chelsea is the pick of the League Cup fourth round, and Anfield hosts it on Thursday morning NZT with a quarter-final spot up for grabs.

Neither side will be at full strength when this one kicks off at 9am on Thursay, 29 October. Chelsea are without the suspended Cole Palmer, while Florian Wirtz is a doubt for Liverpool after twisting his ankle on Sunday.  

I’ve pitched this Liverpool vs Chelsea preview at the goals markets rather than a winner, and the one I like pays just over double your stake. I’d check the best new betting sites for it before settling on a price.

Liverpool

Liverpool have scored 14 goals across their last four games, but they’ve let in seven as well.

Most of those came in Europe. They won 6-3 in Linz on 14 October and then overturned a two-goal deficit to beat Villarreal 4-3 at Anfield six days later. Sunday’s 2-0 win over Brighton was much tidier, with Alexander Isak adding his sixth league goal of the season after a Pascal Gross own goal.

I’m not sure how many of that side start here. Arsenal visit Anfield on Sunday, and Liverpool made 10 changes for the 3-1 win over Tottenham in the last round. Their fringe players coped fine that night, with Alexis Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo both on the scoresheet.

I’d like to see Rio Ngumoha given a run. He started on the bench against Brighton, and a rotated Chelsea back three could struggle with his pace in one-on-ones.

Team News: Wirtz is a doubt. Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni are out, and Munoz is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Nyoni, Ngumoha; Isak.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham on Saturday came out of nowhere.

They’d beaten Bournemouth 5-1 and won 2-0 at Everton in their two previous league games. Then Mike Penders punched a corner into his own net on 77 minutes, and Mathys Tel added a second three minutes from time.

Penders starts again at Anfield. It was the 21-year-old’s first Premier League start, and a cup night on Merseyside is a big ask straight after a mistake like that.

Most football betting sites have Chelsea at $2.55, which surprised me given how many players they’re missing. I wouldn’t write off Danny Welbeck, though. The 35-year-old scored twice in the 6-3 win over Leeds in round three and should lead the line again. Estevao should also get a start in the number 10 role, and I’m keen to see what he does with a full game.

Team News: Palmer is suspended. Martinez, James, Gittens and Emegha are out, while Joao Pedro is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill; Gusto, Lavia, Barco, Palestra; Estevao, Quenda; Welbeck.

• Liverpool have won the League Cup a record 10 times.
• Liverpool lost at home to Crystal Palace in last season’s fourth round.
• Liverpool beat Chelsea in the 2022 and 2024 League Cup finals.
• Chelsea haven’t won at Anfield since March 2021.
• Chelsea have failed to score in two of their last four league games.

Team sheets will play a big role in who wins this match, and they won’t be out until 8am NZT.

If Liverpool name a side close to Sunday’s, I think they win comfortably. Romeo Lavia and Valentin Barco were both unused subs against Tottenham, and with Moises Caicedo expected to be rested for the United game, neither offers the same cover in front of that back three. Liverpool’s press should find plenty of room between the lines.

If Iraola goes for wholesale changes, it’s closer to a coin flip.

I’m wary of Chelsea after tipping them to beat Tottenham last week, and that went badly wrong. I’m siding with Liverpool to go through, probably 3-2 in 90 minutes. Chelsea at $2.55 doesn’t appeal to me without their best player, and I can’t see Welbeck getting much change out of Virgil van Dijk if he plays.

BTTS at $1.55 is too short for my liking. I expect both teams to score, but there’s no value left in it.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.15

I’d rather back goals than either side in this one.

Both teams came through round three in chaotic games. Chelsea beat Leeds 6-3 after going 2-0 down, while Liverpool’s 3-1 win over Tottenham needed a stoppage-time goal to settle it.

Two rotated sides on a cup night is usually a recipe for gaps, and Chelsea have a young keeper who’ll be under pressure from the first whistle.

I’ve got one warning before you jump on. This market settles at 90 minutes, so extra time won’t help you if it’s 2-1 at the final whistle.

Four or more goals at $2.15 is still the bet I’m taking at the top betting websites.