Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Brighton travel to Anfield to face Liverpool in the Premier League at 3am on Monday NZT, four points and two places clear of their hosts.

Liverpool have won three straight in all competitions, but they’ve conceded seven goals across those games. Brighton haven’t lost a league match since a 4-3 defeat at Stamford Bridge on 30 August.

There’s a price above $3.50 at the bottom of this Liverpool vs Brighton preview, and it’s on a result I don’t think enough punters are considering. It’s my pick for anyone keen to bet on football this long weekend.

Liverpool

Liverpool were 2-0 down to Villarreal inside half an hour on Tuesday night, and an 18-year-old dragged them out of it. Rio Ngumoha set up two goals in the 4-3 win and completed seven dribbles, while Alexis Mac Allister scored twice.

I’d start him again.

He came off the bench early in the second half at Brentford on 17 October, and Vitaly Janelt was sent off in stoppage time for pulling him back. Brentford had already lost Yehor Yarmoliuk to a red card before the break, and Alexander Isak’s 70th-minute winner came from a Bradley Barcola knockdown.

Isak has five league goals already, which is two more than he managed in the whole of last season.

Their league form at Anfield is what I can’t square. Liverpool have drawn with Nottingham Forest and Fulham there and lost 3-0 to Manchester City, scoring twice across those three games.

Team News: Ekitike, Leoni, Bradley, Szoboszlai and Frimpong are out. Munoz is a doubt, and Gravenberch returns from suspension.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Ngumoha, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.

Brighton

If you haven’t seen Diego Gomez’s goal against Crystal Palace on 18 October, it’s worth a look. He lobbed Walter Benitez from just past halfway in the seventh minute, and Brighton were 3-0 up by the 10th.

Their 23 league goals from seven games put them in rare company. Only three sides in Premier League history have scored more at this stage of a season.

Charalampos Kostoulas has found his feet up front too. The 19-year-old set up Yasin Ayari for the third goal against Palace and added the fourth himself just after half-time.

I’m less sure what to read into Thursday.

Brighton made eight changes for their Conference League trip to Jablonec and drew 0-0 despite having 73 per cent of the ball. It was the first time they’d failed to score in 10 games, and Liverpool have had two extra days to recover since their own midweek game.

Team News: Ferguson, Azeez, Mitoma, Tzimas, Minteh and Yohanna are out. Wieffer is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Vuskovic, Dunk, Boscagli; Gross, Andres; Gomez, Ayari, De Cuyper; Kostoulas.

• Liverpool won both Anfield meetings with Brighton last season.
• Four of the last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.
• Brighton have kept five clean sheets in seven league games.
• Brighton have scored in all seven of their league games.
• Liverpool have won their last three away league games.

I’ve got this finishing 1-1.

Liverpool’s results at Anfield are too patchy for me to trust them at $2.10, and Brighton have conceded five league goals all season. Liverpool have also conceded first in each of their last two games. They came back both times, but Brentford were down to 10 men and Villarreal let a two-goal lead slip in front of a loud crowd, and I don’t see Brighton being that generous.

I could easily be wrong about Brighton’s legs. Three days isn’t much rest after a trip to the Czech Republic, even with most of their starters rested, and if they fade late, Isak is more than capable of punishing it.

If you’re betting live, I’d wait to see whether Brighton’s press is still working at the hour mark. If it’s dropped off by then, Liverpool at a bigger in-play price would interest me far more than $2.10 does now.

I’m not keen on the over either. Both sides have goals in them, but $1.62 is short when Brighton’s defence has been this stingy.

Draw @ $3.70

I don’t back the draw often, but $3.70 feels generous here.

Liverpool have drawn three of their seven league games, and two of those came at Anfield. Brighton’s only league draw was at home to Leeds, but this is their third game in eight days with a European trip in between.

Neither side will settle for a point, and I think that pushes this towards 1-1 or 2-2 rather than a narrow winner either way.

I’d still take it at $3.50 on the NZ betting apps, so there’s some room if the price shortens before kickoff.