Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Aston Villa host Manchester City at Villa Park in the Premier League on Sunday morning NZT, with City arriving as the only side in the division still on a perfect record.

Enzo Maresca has won all seven league games since replacing Pep Guardiola. Villa are 12th on eight points after a slow start.

On paper, it’s a mismatch. I’m not so sure it plays out that way, because City have struggled in this fixture in recent seasons, especially in Birmingham.

This Aston Villa vs Man City preview covers what’s changed since they last met in May.

For those hunting football betting tips this weekend, I’ve found a result-and-goals double paying better than $3.

Aston Villa

Villa are running short of full-backs, and that’s my main worry for them here.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka had been filling in at left-back before his hamstring injury at Newcastle, so Tyrone Mings moved out there against Viking on 21 October. Mings is a centre-back by trade, and I’d expect Iliman Ndiaye to test him early.

Their European form has been far better than their league form. Villa won 3-2 at Club Brugge before thrashing Fenerbahce 6-0, their biggest European win ever, yet they’re still waiting on a first Premier League win at Villa Park this season. Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have both won there already.

Away from home, things have picked up. The 1-0 win at St James’ Park on 17 October was a second straight away league win, and Nicolas Jackson gave Newcastle a torrid evening.

For me, Emiliano Buendia is Villa’s most dangerous player right now. He set up Matty Cash’s winner in this fixture last October, and he stepped up to take the penalty against Viking.

Team News: Wan-Bissaka, Ruggeri and Onana are out. Maatsen and Manzambi are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Mings; Kamara, Gomes; McGinn, Buendia, Alysson; Jackson.

Man City

Phil Foden is back to his best.

He scored on his first league appearance since the Manchester derby, against Ipswich on 17 October, then helped himself to his first Champions League hat-trick in the 5-1 win over AEK Athens three days later.

Erling Haaland didn’t even get off the bench that night. He has 12 goals in all competitions already, and Maresca has confirmed he’s fine to start.

I’m less convinced by what’s going on at the other end. City have conceded in four of their seven league games, and Ipswich scored twice at the Etihad. Daizen Maeda got the better of Marc Guehi far too easily for the first of those.

A City win will be the go-to leg in plenty of multis this weekend, and you’ll see it pop up in betting promotions across the board. At $1.68 on its own, I’d want more for my money.

Team News: Semenyo is out for around eight weeks with a knee injury. Kovacic is a doubt with a knock.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, O’Reilly; Anderson, Bouaddi; Ndiaye, Foden, Doku; Haaland.

• Villa have won their last three home Premier League games against City.
• Villa beat City home and away last season.
• City have won all three of their Premier League away games this season.
• City have scored in all seven of their Premier League games.
• Haaland has scored 100 non-penalty Premier League goals in 139 appearances.

This is a tough one to call.

City are the form side in the country, and I’d have them as clear favourites against almost anyone right now. They also get an extra day’s rest after the Champions League, and Maresca was able to leave Haaland on the bench against AEK.

Then there’s Unai Emery. He’s had City’s number at Villa Park for a while now, and I’m wary of writing Villa off at home against a side they clearly don’t fear.

I’m still going 2-1 to City. I can’t see a City defence this loose holding Villa to nothing, so I’m expecting goals at both ends.

If Villa score first, Villa Park will get loud and I could easily look silly.

Man City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

City’s attack is the easy half of this bet to justify. They’ve scored 19 league goals in seven games, and Foden’s form gives them another way to hurt Villa if Haaland gets crowded out.

Villa scoring is the bigger leap, but I don’t think it’s much of one. They’ve found the net in both home league games since the Arsenal defeat on 31 August, and Buendia’s set-piece delivery caused City problems in this fixture a year ago.

At $3.40, it’s the price I’ll be taking across the top betting websites before kickoff.