Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Bayern Munich and Arsenal meet in the Champions League at the Allianz Arena at 8am on Thursday NZT, and nothing else in this round comes close.

Both sides are unbeaten in Europe, but they’ve got there in very different ways. Bayern let three in at Viking last week and threw away two points in the 90th minute. Arsenal haven’t conceded at all.

My angle in this Bayern Munich vs Arsenal preview is a player market just north of $2, and it hinges on one man’s record in this competition. It’s my pick for anyone looking to bet on football this week, even with Michael Olise watching from the stands.

Bayern Munich

Losing Olise for this one hurts - perhaps even more than the result in Stavanger did.

He was booked for a foul against Viking on 13 October and then threw the ball at Zlatko Tripic’s face seconds later. Bayern finished with 10 men and conceded a 90th-minute equaliser in a 3-3 draw, after Harry Kane’s double and a Luis Diaz goal had turned around a 2-0 half-time deficit.

Their back line is my main concern. Viking scored after two minutes and again on the break before the interval, and Augsburg put two past them in a 2-2 on 10 October.

Going forward, I’ve got no complaints. Bayern took 29 shots in a 6-1 thrashing of RB Leipzig on Saturday, and Union Berlin were beaten 7-0 before the international break.

Team News: Olise is suspended. Musiala and Buchmann are out. Neuer is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Urbig; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Brown; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Karl, Saibari, Diaz; Kane.

Arsenal

Arsenal managed just one shot on target at Nottingham Forest on 18 October.

Noni Madueke came off the bench to score in the 80th minute for a 1-0 win, and I’m not reading much into the numbers. Forest were happy to defend deep, and three points was the job with Munich three days later.

Their defending is why they’re priced at $3.30 rather than north of $4. They’ve conceded five in seven league games and none in two Champions League outings, all without William Saliba, who’s yet to play this season because of a back injury. Ezri Konsa has slotted in next to Gabriel Magalhaes without much fuss.

Their one bad day was a 3-0 loss at Brighton on 19 September. Madueke should start on the left after that winner, and anyone following on the best live betting sites should watch how Arsenal handle Bayern’s first 20 minutes before getting involved.

Team News: Saliba, Hincapie and Tzolis are out.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Guimaraes, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Madueke; Havertz.

• Arsenal beat Bayern 3-1 at the Emirates last season.
• Bayern beat Arsenal 1-0 at the Allianz Arena in April 2024.
• Bayern have scored 22 goals in six Bundesliga games.
• Bayern have conceded in each of their last three games.
• Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games.

I’ve gone back and forth on this prediction.

Bayern at home are frightening, and Kane is in the form of his life in Europe. But without Olise and Jamal Musiala, they lose their two best dribblers, and Arsenal are as good as anyone at shutting down a side that can’t beat a man.

Arsenal held them to 0.65 xG in north London last season, with just eight shots. I don’t see the Allianz changing Arsenal’s plan much. They’ll defend deep and wait for their moments, and Bukayo Saka should get joy against Nathaniel Brown.

My doubt is Bayern’s ability to turn pressure into goals against a back four this good. Viking were 2-0 up at half-time despite seeing far less of the ball, and Bayern needed a penalty to get going.

If Arsenal score first, I can see Bayern chasing it and leaving gaps, and that’s the scenario where my pick looks daft. I’ve still got it 1-1. Bayern at $2.05 is too short for me, and I’d sooner leave the result alone and look at the scorer markets instead.

Kane to Score Anytime @ $2.05

Kane has scored in nine straight Champions League games, and I can’t talk myself out of the 10th.

He scored twice in Stavanger, one from the spot and one with a header from a Joshua Kimmich cross. He’s on penalties, and with Olise and Musiala out, even more of Bayern’s attack goes through him.

Arsenal won’t give him much. Those eight shots at the Emirates last season gave me pause, I’ll admit. But he scored a penalty at the Emirates in the 2-2 quarter-final first leg in 2024, and he only needs one sight of goal.

At $2.05, it’s worth a look on the new betting sites before the lineups drop.