Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Liverpool face Villarreal in the Champions League at Anfield on Wednesday morning, with kickoff at 8am NZT.

Both sides won last time out in Europe. Liverpool scored six at LASK, and Villarreal came from a goal down to beat Napoli 3-1 and end a run of seven straight Champions League defeats.

Liverpool are heavy favourites at around $1.45, and I can’t argue with that. But they’ve got real problems at right-back, so this Liverpool vs Villarreal preview spends more time on goals than on the winner.

My pick is a goals line at $2.45, and it’s where my football betting tips money is going for this one.

Liverpool

Anfield hasn’t been much of a fortress this season.

Liverpool have won two of their five home games in all competitions. Nottingham Forest and Fulham both left with a point, and Manchester City won 3-0 there on 11 October. Their wins came against Tottenham Hotspur in the Carabao Cup and Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, both in September.

Away from home, they look a different team. They scored six at LASK on 14 October, then came from 1-0 down at Brentford on 17 October to win 2-1 with second-half goals from Victor Munoz and Alexander Isak. To be fair, Brentford had Yehor Yarmoliuk sent off on the stroke of half-time and finished with nine.

What worries me though, is their defending. They’ve conceded seven goals in their last three games, and the right side of their back four is down to the bare bones. I’m not convinced whoever starts there is the answer against Alberto Moleiro.

Isak is my first pick in the scorer markets. He scored at Brentford and against Forest in August, and that’s where I’d point any betting promotions you’ve got going.

Team News: Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Ekitike, Bradley, Jaros and Leoni are out. Endo and Chiesa aren’t eligible. Gakpo is back in contention.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Munoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.

Villarreal

Villarreal’s record in this competition was dire before Napoli came to town. They’d lost seven Champions League games in a row, a run that started after a 2-2 with Juventus in October 2025, and they were a goal down after eight minutes against Napoli on 13 October.

Then they scored twice in quick succession. Georges Mikautadze pounced on a loose backpass, and Santiago Mourino scored from long range soon after, before substitute Tani Oluwaseyi finished it off late on.

La Liga’s been a slog. They’re 12th with nine points from nine games, and the 0-0 at home to Elche on 17 October was poor against a side in the bottom three.

I’ll say this for them - they score goals. They’ve got 13 in nine league games, which is decent for a side in 12th, and Gerard Moreno is still pulling the strings at 34.

Team News: Buchanan and Pepe are out.

Predicted Lineup: Junior; Mourino, Navarro, Veiga, Romero; Comesana, Saliba, Gueye, Moleiro; Moreno, Mikautadze.

• Liverpool have won three of their four meetings with Villarreal.
• Villarreal have lost three of their six away games this season.
• Villarreal have one clean sheet in 11 games this season.
• Liverpool have scored in eight of their 10 games this season.
• Liverpool are fifth in the Premier League, nine points off the top.

I’ve gone 3-2 Liverpool.

That might look greedy, but I can’t see Liverpool shutting Villarreal out. Their right side is a mess, and Moleiro will run at whoever starts there for 90 minutes. Mikautadze doesn’t need many sights of goal either.

But I trust Liverpool’s attack more than Villarreal’s defence. Florian Wirtz and Isak should find space against a back four that’s let in 17 goals in 11 games.

My hesitation is fatigue. This is Liverpool’s third game in seven days, and Brighton come to Anfield at the weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked if they fade late and Villarreal nick a point.

A draw at $4.70 doesn’t tempt me. I’d rather back goals, and if Liverpool go ahead early I’d still expect Villarreal to have a go at them.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.45

I wouldn’t normally go this high on a goals line at Anfield.

Liverpool’s five home games this season have produced 14 goals, but only two of them went over 3.5. That gave me pause.

Villarreal changed my mind. Seven of their 11 games this season have had four goals or more, including both of their Champions League matches. They concede too often to play for a narrow defeat, and they’ve scored in eight of those 11.

A 3-1 or a 2-2 does the job here. I’d grab the $2.45 on the New Zealand betting sites before the lineups drop.