Como vs Man United Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Como welcome Manchester United to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in the Champions League on Thursday morning NZT, with both clubs on three points after two rounds of the league phase.

It’s the first time Como have faced English opposition in a competitive game, and United turn up without a win since 10 September. I’ve gone for a player market in this Como vs Man United preview, and it pays better than $2.50.

If you bet on football at all this week, it’s the game I’d be focusing on.

Como

Nico Paz was the best player on the pitch in Florence.

He headed Como 2-0 up four minutes after Mattia Liberali’s opener, then slid Anastasios Douvikas through for the third in the 56th minute of their 3-1 win at Fiorentina on 18 October. And he only lasted 61 minutes.

Fiorentina out-shot them 19-16 that day. Como still won by two because their counter was so sharp, and I don’t think they’ll mind giving United the ball here.

Their European form is harder to read though. RB Leipzig got thrashed 4-1 at the Sinigaglia on 10 September, but Como shipped three in Rotterdam on 14 October and lost 3-2 to Feyenoord. I’m not sure which version turns up, and I’d guess a lot depends on how often United leave space for Paz to aim at.

Team News: Diao is out. Chalobah and Kean are doubts, and Couto is being assessed.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Smolcic, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Milla, Da Cunha; Liberali, Paz, Caqueret; Douvikas.

Manchester United

Manchester United now have just seven points from seven Premier League games.

They’re 13th, and they haven’t won anywhere since beating Sabah 4-0 on 10 September. That’s six games without a win, three of them defeats.

I’ll give them some credit for Leeds on 18 October. Bryan Mbeumo finished Youri Tielemans’ low cross on 35 minutes, and it was the first time they’d led at half-time in the league this season. Dominic Calvert-Lewin levelled six minutes after the break.

Madrid was ugly. Atletico scored after 47 seconds on 13 October, and Ademola Lookman added a second once United were down to 10.

But Bruno Fernandes rattled the crossbar that night, and Mbeumo is up to four goals for the season. There’s enough going forward that United’s price on NZ betting apps looks a bit generous to me.

Team News: Ugarte, Dorgu and Sesko are injured, and Yoro is suspended. Heaven, Mainoo, Martinez and Shaw all need to be assessed.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Mazraoui, Maguire, Martinez, Dalot; Santos, Baleba; Amad, Tielemans, Fernandes; Mbeumo.

• Como have never played an English club in a competitive match.
• United have lost two of their last 16 European games against Italian clubs.
• Como have scored 12 goals in seven Serie A games.
• Como are unbeaten at home this season.
• United last kept a clean sheet on 10 September.

My first instinct was to take the draw here.

United have drawn three of their last four games, and on paper this looks like another one. Then I looked at what’s left of their back line, with their best young centre-back suspended and a couple more defenders nursing knocks.

For me, Como are the better side right now, and they’re at home. I’m going 2-1 Como.

Leipzig are no mugs, and Como tore through them at the Sinigaglia last month. United were easy to play through in Madrid, and if Paz finds the gaps Atletico found, this could get away from them early. I wouldn’t rule out a bigger margin, but Como’s defending in Rotterdam stops me going any further than one goal.

I could easily be wrong about United. Fernandes and Mbeumo are good enough to nick a result on their own, and desperate teams do pinch wins when nobody expects them to.

A draw at $3.70 isn’t the worst price going either. I just can’t see United keeping Como out for 90 minutes, and I don’t trust them to score twice away from home right now.

Either way, I’d expect both teams to score at around $1.70. It’s too short to back on its own, so I’ve looked elsewhere.

Anastasios Douvikas to Score Anytime @ $2.60

Douvikas has scored in both of Como’s Champions League games so far.

He’s on five goals for the season after his finish in Florence, and he’s the player Paz looks for first when Como break. United have conceded in each of their last six matches, and a back four this patched up won’t enjoy chasing him.

My worry is selection, since Como have another striker coming back from a shin problem. On this form, I still expect Douvikas to start.

If you miss $2.60 before kickoff, the best live betting sites will have him priced up again once Como settle.