Man City vs Brighton Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Man City and Brighton meet twice at the Etihad Stadium over the next four days, starting with a League Cup fourth-round tie on Thursday morning NZT.

Kickoff is 8:30am on Thursday 29 October. City are the holders after beating Arsenal 2-0 at Wembley in March, but they host Brighton again in the Premier League on Sunday NZT, so I’m expecting plenty of changes from both managers.

That guesswork is why this Man City vs Brighton preview steers clear of the match result. I’ve gone for a goals line at $2.50 instead, and I think two second-string sides could give it a good shake. Those comparing prices across football betting sites will find it at the end.

Man City

Sunday’s league game against the same opponent will impact Enzo Maresca’s team sheet in this match.

I expect a side close to the one that beat Norwich 5-0 on 17 September. Maresca made 10 changes that night, and Floyd Samba scored twice on his debut at 17. Allan also scored on his debut.

Their defeat at Aston Villa on 24 October was a strange one. City had seven shots on target to Villa’s two, but Marc Guehi’s miscontrol led to Nicolas Jackson’s opener, and Gianluigi Donnarumma let Jackson’s second squirm under him on the hour.

I’m more concerned about their defending than their attack. City have let in two goals in each of their last two league games, and I can’t see a back line of fringe players tightening that up. It’s the main reason I won’t touch $1.57 on any of the sports betting apps I use.

Team News: Semenyo is out. O’Reilly and Kovacic are minor doubts, while Nunes is struggling with a groin problem.

Predicted Lineup: Rulli; Lewis, Khusanov, Reis, Ait-Nouri; Bouaddi, Kovacic; Allan, Cherki, Ndiaye; Samba.

Brighton

I don’t read too much into Brighton’s 2-0 loss at Liverpool on 25 October.

Yasin Ayari sliced over an open goal early on, and Pascal Gross turned a Florian Wirtz shot into his own net soon after. Brighton managed just one shot on target from 17, but those were also the first goals they’d conceded in over nine hours in all competitions.

Before Anfield, they’d won four straight league games by a combined 15-0, including a 3-0 win over Arsenal on 19 September.

Charalampos Kostoulas looks well suited to a cup night. He scored and then set up Maxim De Cuyper’s winner when Brighton came from 2-0 down to beat Manchester United 3-2 at Old Trafford on 16 September.

City have won 19 straight League Cup ties against lower-league clubs, and the last side to knock them out from outside the top flight was Brighton, on penalties back in 2008.

Team News: Mitoma, Ferguson, Tzimas, Azeez and Yohanna are out. Minteh, Wieffer, Struijk, Kadioglu and Steele are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Costinha, Vuskovic, Boscagli, Hadjam; Andres, Ayari; Gomez, Gross, De Cuyper; Kostoulas.

• City haven’t beaten Brighton in their last four meetings.
• City have scored in all eight of their Premier League games.
• Brighton have kept five Premier League clean sheets this season.
• Brighton have scored 23 Premier League goals this season.
• City are the defending League Cup champions.

City should go through, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if this one goes to penalties.

Rotation cuts both ways here. A much-changed City side was far too good for Norwich, but Brighton are third in the Premier League and their back-up players have already won at Old Trafford this season.

I’m calling it 3-2 to City in 90 minutes. They had seven shots on target at Villa Park, and even a changed front line with Rayan Cherki and Iliman Ndiaye in it should create plenty at home.

I’ll admit I don’t know how many senior players either manager will risk. Maresca speaks to the media on Tuesday UK time, and a stronger City XI would change my view.

BTTS at $1.70 is short, but I’d be surprised if Brighton don’t score. Kostoulas and De Cuyper both found the net at Old Trafford, and City’s cup defence will be young.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.50

Four or more goals have gone in during half of Brighton’s league games this season.

City aren’t far off either. Sunderland lost 5-3 at the Etihad in September, and Ipswich scored twice there on 17 October before going down 3-2.

Both clubs also produced five-goal ties in the last round of this competition. Add two weakened defences and Fabian Hurzeler’s love of a high press, and I can see chances at both ends.

I’ll wait for the team sheets and take $2.50 on over 3.5 goals, or chase a bigger number at the best live sports betting sites if it’s goalless at the break.