Premier League: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Liverpool and Crystal Palace meet at Anfield on Sunday morning New Zealand time, the fourth time these two have faced off this season. Palace are unbeaten in the first three - including a 2-1 league win at Selhurst Park back in September and a Community Shield triumph on penalties.

In this Liverpool vs Crystal Palace preview, I’m looking at why the hosts are vulnerable despite needing the points. I’ve found value in a result-and-goals double paying above $3.00 on NZ betting sites.

Liverpool

There’s no need to beat around the bush with this one - Liverpool’s season has fallen apart. They were knocked out of the Champions League by PSG 4-0 on aggregate, and their league form has been patchy since February. Four defeats in five matches preceded last week’s 2-1 win at Everton, where Virgil van Dijk needed a header 10 minutes into stoppage time to pinch all three points.

Mohamed Salah has seven Premier League goals this season and scored against Everton in what could be his last Merseyside derby. Hugo Ekitike is done for the season with a ruptured Achilles, Alisson Becker is still out, and Conor Bradley won’t play again this term.

Their goalkeeper situation is a concern. Giorgi Mamardashvili was stretchered off against Everton after a deep gash below his left knee from Beto’s studs. He says he’ll be back soon, but if he doesn’t recover, Liverpool turn to Freddie Woodman - who made his Premier League debut for the club against Everton.

Team News: Ekitike, Alisson, Bradley, Leoni, Endo, and Bajcetic are long-term absentees. Mamardashvili is a doubt. Gomez could return but is not certain.

Predicted Lineup: Mamardashvili; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Szoboszlai, Gravenberch; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.

Crystal Palace

Palace are having a season to remember in Europe. They beat Fiorentina 4-2 on aggregate to reach the Conference League semi-finals, with Ismaila Sarr scoring in both legs. He’s got 17 goals across all competitions this season and has been their most dangerous player by some distance.

Their recent league form is solid without being spectacular - two wins and two draws from the last four. I don’t think Palace will come to Anfield trying to protect a point, either. They already won at Selhurst Park against Liverpool in September and have nothing to fear here.

The concern for Glasner is workload. Palace have a Conference League semi-final first leg against Shakhtar Donetsk on April 30, five days after this match. Adam Wharton went off injured in Florence and missed the West Ham game, so he’s unlikely to feature.

Team News: Wharton is doubtful with an adductor issue. Nketiah, Guessand, and Doucoure are out. Lacroix recovered for the West Ham draw and should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Canvot; Munoz, Lerma, Hughes, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Mateta.

• Crystal Palace are unbeaten in three meetings with Liverpool this season, winning two and drawing one.
• Sarr has scored in both Conference League quarter-final legs against Fiorentina and has 17 goals in all competitions.
• Liverpool have conceded in seven of their last 10 Premier League matches.
• Palace have scored in their last six away Premier League games.

Liverpool need this more than Palace do. Fifth in the table with five matches to go, they can’t afford to drop points at home if they want Champions League football next season.

But I’m not sure their recent form justifies the $1.48 price tag. We’re talking four defeats in five across all competitions before the Everton win. Van Dijk’s stoppage-time header rescued what was a poor performance, and their goalkeeping woes add another layer of uncertainty. If Woodman starts, Palace will fancy their chances even more.

Palace have treated fixtures against Liverpool as a free swing all year, and Sarr gave their defence nightmares at Selhurst Park in September. I can see him being a problem again. With Wharton likely out, Palace lose some control in midfield, but Lerma and Will Hughes can do the job there and Glasner won’t ask them to dominate possession anyway.

I’m tipping Liverpool 2-1. Anfield and a hefty side of desperation should be enough. But Palace will score - they’ve found the net in their last six away league games - and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up tighter than the bookmakers expect.

For anyone looking at football betting tips ahead of this one, the BTTS market at $1.73 is generous.

Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.10

Palace have scored in six consecutive away league matches and already have two wins and a draw against Liverpool this season. Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta have the quality to trouble a backline that’s conceded in seven of their last 10 league outings.

But Liverpool at home, chasing a top-four finish, with Salah on potentially one of his final Anfield appearances - I think they outscore the visitors rather than shut them out. At $3.10 on any top betting app, I’m comfortable with the play.