Man City vs Atletico Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester City and Atletico Madrid meet in Seoul on Sunday night New Zealand time in the final fixture of City’s pre-season Asia tour.

Both clubs are stripped of World Cup stars and working through early tactical ideas under vastly different circumstances. Enzo Maresca’s City have looked the sharper side so far. A 1-1 draw with Inter Milan in Hong Kong was followed by a comfortable 3-1 win over the K-League All Stars on Wednesday, and a few fringe players have impressed the new boss.

In this Man City vs Atletico Madrid preview, I look at what each squad has to offer without its headline names. I’ve also got a goals angle worth exploring for anyone keen to bet on football this weekend.

Man City

City finished second in the Premier League last season, seven points off Arsenal, but salvaged a domestic cup double in Guardiola’s farewell campaign. 

Maresca has walked into a squad in transition. Bernardo Silva left for Real Madrid, John Stones was released, Nathan Ake joined Fenerbahce. Elliot Anderson’s £116 million arrival from Nottingham Forest is the window’s marquee deal, but I won’t see him until the competitive season after he played every minute for England at the World Cup.

I’ve been impressed by the tour squad. Ryan McAidoo and Divin Mubama have caught the eye - Mubama has two goals across the two friendlies. Foden captained the side in Hong Kong, which felt like an early statement from Maresca about leadership going forward.

Ruben Dias, Omar Marmoush and Matheus Nunes joined for the Seoul leg after returning from shorter World Cup breaks. I’d expect Maresca to field close to his strongest available XI here.

Team News: Haaland, Rodri (minor back surgery), Anderson, Cherki, Doku, Guehi and Trafford are all absent. Grealish was not included in the tour squad.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Lewis, Dias, Gvardiol, Ait-Nouri; Kovacic, Reijnders; Savinho, Foden, Semenyo; Marmoush.

Atletico Madrid

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pre-season squad this depleted. A staggering 13 Atletico players went to the World Cup, with four winning it for Spain and six involved in the final for Argentina. That has gutted Diego Simeone’s options.

Atletico had a strong 2025-26. Fourth in La Liga, Copa del Rey finalists, Champions League semi-finalists. Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth were the main goal threats with 40 goals between them across all competitions. Neither is available here.

Against Man Utd in Stockholm last week, youngster Arnau Ortiz scored a fluky opener before Atletico faded and lost 2-1 to Bryan Mbeumo’s double. I’d say Lookman is their most dangerous option in Seoul after scoring twice in the Getafe win. Lee Kang-in is the other one to watch - he recently arrived from PSG and inherited the number seven shirt following Griezmann’s departure to MLS.

Team News: Llorente, Pubill, Baena, Grimaldo (Spain WC winners), Alvarez, Musso, Molina, Nico Gonzalez, Almada, Giuliano Simeone (Argentina finalists), Gimenez (Uruguay), Sorloth (Norway) and Obed Vargas (Mexico) are all on post-World Cup breaks. Barrios is injured.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Hancko, Le Normand, Mendoza; Cardoso, Koke, Hjulmand; Lee Kang-in, Lookman, Ortiz.

• Atletico won the last Coupang Play Series meeting between these sides in Seoul in 2023, beating City 2-1.
• City have scored four goals across their two pre-season games.
• Both squads are missing more than half their regular first-choice starters due to the World Cup.
• Atletico have conceded three goals across their two pre-season fixtures.
• Over 2.5 goals came in during City’s 3-1 win over the K-League All Stars on Wednesday.

I’m leaning towards City. Their squad has had more time together on this tour, and the addition of Dias, Marmoush and Nunes for the Seoul leg gives them a credible senior group up against what is essentially a skeleton crew from Atletico.

But I’m not confident enough to put serious money on the result. Pre-season friendlies in World Cup summers are chaotic. 

Simeone will organise whatever group he has, and Lookman or Lee Kang-in are more than capable of punishing City on the counter. If you’re checking the best betting apps for value, the draw at $3.60 isn’t unreasonable either.

I’ll go City to edge it, but I’d rather put my money on goals.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.75

The K-League All Stars game produced four goals and comfortably cleared this line. Against Inter, City went ahead through Mubama in the 14th minute but conceded an equaliser six minutes later, finishing 1-1. Atletico’s two fixtures have delivered eight combined goals.

I’m banking on this game looking more like the K-League All Stars outing than the Inter draw.

City’s pace on the flanks through Savinho and Semenyo will cause problems against a patched-up Atletico defence, and the way pre-season friendlies tend to open up after the 60th minute with waves of substitutions is another push towards goals.

At $1.75, I’m comfortable taking it on the live betting sites available in New Zealand.