Premier League: Manchester City vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Manchester City and Arsenal meet at the Etihad on Monday morning New Zealand time in the biggest Premier League match of the season.

This is the title on the line. Arsenal are six points clear at the top with seven matches to go, though City have a game in hand. An Arsenal win and it’s effectively over. Arteta’s lot could be lifting their first league trophy in 22 years within a fortnight.

A City win drops that gap to three with a game still up their sleeve, and the pressure flips onto the leaders. Throw in Arteta vs Guardiola for the umpteenth time and this one has everything. I’ve got a play at $3.40 on betting sites NZ.

Manchester City

City have been ruthless at home this year. Their 3-0 win at Chelsea last weekend was as clinical as you’ll see from a Premier League team this season, and they’ve conceded just nine league goals in their 10 home outings.

Erling Haaland’s 22 Premier League goals are the story of their campaign. He’ll fancy adding to that in this one too – the Norwegian scored inside nine minutes when these sides met at the Emirates in September. Arsenal’s high line is what he preys on.

There’s a psychological edge for City here too. Last month’s EFL Cup final at Wembley ended City 2-0. With 11 days of preparation and a mostly fit squad, I’d rather be Pep’s lot than Arteta’s right now.

Team News: Gvardiol, Stones and Dias are all out. O’Reilly is a doubt after hobbling off at Chelsea with a hamstring issue. Thankfully Silva avoided a booking that would’ve triggered a two-match ban.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Khusanov, Aké, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Rodri, Reijnders; Doku, Cherki, Foden; Haaland.

Arsenal

Arsenal’s season is unravelling fast. A 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth last week ended a four-match winning run in the league, while Wednesday’s 0-0 with Sporting was pretty ugly even though it got the job done. 

Their injury list is brutal, with Saka, Odegaard, Timber, Merino, Calafiori and Madueke all ruled out or serious doubts. Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyokeres will have to drag Arsenal through this one.

But there’s one angle worth holding onto: Mikel Arteta is five Premier League games unbeaten against Guardiola, a first for any manager. Gabriel Martinelli also has two goals and two assists in his last five PL games versus City. 

I rate it a long shot given the injuries, but Arteta’s record against Guardiola is impressive.

Team News: Saka, Odegaard, Timber, Merino, Calafiori and Madueke all out or heavy doubts. Rice picked up a concern in the week but is expected to play. Hincapie returned against Sporting.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Rice; Norgaard, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

• Manchester City have won the first half in each of their last 11 Premier League home matches.
• Arsenal have won just once at the Etihad in the Premier League since January 2015.
• Haaland has scored or assisted seven of City’s last nine PL goals against Arsenal.
• Over 2.5 goals has come in for eight of City’s last 10 home fixtures across all competitions.
• Arsenal have three losses in their last four matches across all competitions.

I’m going with City, and I’m pretty confident too. Arsenal are without six key players and they’re wobbling big time. They’ve won once at the Etihad in the PL since 2015. I don’t see them getting anything here.

The vibe around Arsenal is ugly too. A Carabao Cup final loss, an FA Cup exit at Southampton, then defeat at home to Bournemouth – three losses in four matches is nothing close to title-winning form.

Arteta was pleading for his key players back after Bournemouth, but he’s not getting most of them in time. Without Saka and Odegaard, Arsenal’s attack falls apart. Eze has been outstanding, but asking him to create and score against Rodri and Reijnders is a big ask.

Haaland against this depleted setup screams goals. However, Gyokeres has been finding the target of late with 12 league goals for the season, so I’m not expecting a clean sheet either way. Give me City by a couple, with both sides finding the net.

If you want to play it safer, City to win at around $2.00 is available on best sports betting apps NZ, though I prefer the return that comes with backing goals on both ends.

Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

Both teams have scored in the last four league meetings between these sides. Haaland’s record against Arsenal is frightening, and even without their creative spine, Gyokeres has enough to punish City’s back line given half a chance.

City have conceded in four of their last six home PL outings, so clean sheets aren’t a given at the Etihad. I can see Gyokeres or Martinelli nicking a consolation while City control the result.

At $3.40 on football betting sites this week, Manchester City to win with both teams scoring looks the play. The goals angle gives a cushion if Arsenal grab one late.