Man City vs Inter Milan Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester City and Inter Milan meet in Hong Kong on Saturday night New Zealand time at the Kai Tak Stadium, as part of the Hong Kong Football Festival and a rematch of the 2023 Champions League final. Enzo Maresca takes charge of his first game as City boss, while Cristian Chivu brings a reigning Serie A champions side that won the domestic double last season.

My Manchester City vs Inter Milan preview looks at what both squads have to offer despite heavy World Cup absences. Read to the end, as I’ve got an angle on the goals market at decent value for those eager to bet on football this week.

Manchester City

It’s a new era. Pep Guardiola is gone after a decade that changed English football. Maresca has now inherited a squad that finished second in the Premier League, won the FA Cup and EFL Cup, but exited the Champions League at the last 16 after a 5-1 aggregate hammering by Real Madrid.

I don’t think anyone expects much from this game in terms of results, but the squad Maresca has taken to Asia is more interesting than I anticipated. Phil Foden, Josko Gvardiol and Tijjani Reijnders give it a real core of quality through the middle. Kovacic is on the tour too, though he managed just nine appearances last season and has been told he can leave. Antoine Semenyo and Savinho offer pace in attack, and Gianluigi Donnarumma is between the sticks.

The absences are significant, though. Erling Haaland, Rodri, Rayan Cherki, Elliot Anderson and Marc Guehi are all resting after deep World Cup campaigns. Maresca is working with a blend of new arrivals, fringe players and academy graduates.

Team News: Haaland, Rodri, Cherki, Anderson and Guehi all absent due to World Cup rest. Trafford is also absent, with a club-record move to Leeds agreed. Khusanov is available despite Uzbekistan’s group-stage exit. Ait-Nouri and Reis are in the squad.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Lewis, Khusanov, Reis, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Reijnders; Semenyo, Foden, Savinho; Mubama.

Inter Milan

Inter were dominant in Serie A last season. 21st Scudetto, three games to spare, plus the Coppa Italia. Lautaro Martinez won the Capocannoniere with 17 league goals, and Chivu somehow managed the transition from Simone Inzaghi without missing a beat.

Their touring squad is missing Lautaro and Marcus Thuram after Argentina went to the World Cup final and France played in the third-place match (losing 6-4 to England). 

That’s a lot of firepower gone. 

But Nicolo Barella, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Benjamin Pavard and Piotr Zielinski are all in the group, and Andy Diouf rescued a 2-1 win against Karlsruher SC with two stoppage-time goals in their only friendly so far.

Hakan Calhanoglu, Petar Sucic and Ange-Yoan Bonny have returned to training after the World Cup, so they could feature here. Manuel Akanji joined from City this summer and I’d expect him to be involved against his old club.

Team News: Lautaro Martinez and Thuram absent after World Cup commitments. Calhanoglu, Sucic and Bonny recently returned to training. Akanji could face his former club.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Pavard, Akanji, Bastoni; Luis Henrique, Barella, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco; Esposito, Bonny.

• City won the 2023 Champions League final 1-0 against Inter in Istanbul.
• Their most recent competitive meeting was a 0-0 draw in the 2024-25 Champions League league phase.
• Inter won 2-1 in their only pre-season outing against Karlsruher SC on 26 July.
• City’s pre-season touring squad contains 28 players from a mix of senior and academy ranks.

I’m going with goals as my betting angle here. Neither team has their full squad, defensive structures won’t be refined yet, and both managers will use this as an opportunity to try things. Maresca’s first game as City boss, Chivu testing new combinations - it’ll be open.

City’s attack still has Foden, Semenyo and Savinho. Inter’s midfield with Barella and Calhanoglu can control games even in friendlies. I think both sides will score, but I wouldn’t put much stock in who actually wins here. If you’re looking through betting bonuses available in New Zealand, the goals market is where I’d focus your attention.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.75

Pre-season friendlies with this much attacking talent on both sides tend to produce goals. City had nine in a 10-1 FA Cup win last season and won’t be shy going forward, even without Haaland. Inter scored two in stoppage time against Karlsruher SC and have Barella driving them from midfield.

Neither defence will be organised this early. Maresca is still implementing his system. Chivu is integrating World Cup returnees. I’d be surprised if this one finished under three.

At $1.75 on the best live sports betting sites available in New Zealand, I’m comfortable backing it.