FA Cup: Manchester City vs Southampton - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Manchester City take on Southampton at Wembley on Sunday morning NZT in an FA Cup semi-final that looks like a mismatch on paper. City are $1.24 favourites for a reason.

But Southampton have already knocked out Arsenal in this competition. In this Manchester City vs Southampton preview, I look at where the value is - and why the handicap market is more interesting than the match result. 

If you’re checking football betting sites for this one, the goals line is where I’d start.

Manchester City

City went top of the Premier League on Wednesday night with a 1-0 win at Burnley, Erling Haaland scoring the only goal. That’s five wins from their last six across all competitions, though the one defeat was a big one - eliminated by Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate in the Champions League.

Their FA Cup form has been even better. A 4-0 dismantling of Liverpool in the quarter-finals - Haaland grabbing a hat-trick - was one of their most complete performances of the season. I don’t think Guardiola will ease off here.

Haaland has 12 goals in 12 FA Cup appearances for City but has never scored in a semi-final or final in any competition for the club. Fourteen games, zero goals. I’d be cautious backing him as first goalscorer.

Rodri (groin), Josko Gvardiol (broken leg) and Ruben Dias (hamstring) are all unavailable. Marc Guehi and Abdukodir Khusanov have formed a solid centre-back partnership, while Nico O’Reilly has done well filling Rodri’s midfield role.

Team News: Rodri, Gvardiol and Dias are out. Stones returned against Burnley and should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Guehi, Khusanov, Ait-Nouri; O’Reilly, Silva; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland.

Southampton

I can’t write about Southampton without mentioning their quarter-final win over Arsenal. Ross Stewart opened the scoring before Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres levelled, and then substitute Shea Charles struck the winner in the 85th minute.

Seven straight Championship wins followed before a 2-2 draw with Bristol City on Tuesday night, where they trailed twice and fought back through Cyle Larin and Stewart. They’re now unbeaten in 17 Championship matches.

Tonda Eckert came in as interim after Will Still was sacked in November, then got the permanent job in December. Southampton are fourth on 76 points, within touching distance of the automatic promotion spots. Larin, on loan from Mallorca, has scored regularly since his February debut.

I think they’ll be up for it. But Wembley has been unkind to them - eight losses from 11 at the national stadium, including both previous FA Cup semi-finals there.

Team News: Roerslev is their only absentee. Eckert has a settled side and I’d expect a similar lineup to the one that started against Bristol City.

Predicted Lineup: Peretz; Bree, Wood, Harwood-Bellis, Manning; Downes, Charles; Azaz, Matsuki, Edozie; Stewart.

• City have won three of four previous FA Cup meetings against Southampton, including a 4-1 quarter-final victory in 2021-22.
• Southampton have lost both previous FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley (vs Chelsea in 2017-18 and Leicester in 2020-21).
• Haaland has never scored in a semi-final or final for City across 14 appearances in those games.
• City have won 21 consecutive FA Cup matches against lower-league opposition.
• No non-Premier League side has progressed past a top-flight team in an FA Cup semi-final since 1991-92.

City should be too good. I’d be surprised if this goes to extra time.

Southampton deserve credit for their cup run - beating Arsenal was special. But City are on another plane right now. They’ve beaten Arsenal and Chelsea in consecutive Premier League fixtures this month, and thumped Liverpool 4-0 in this very competition.

I’m expecting City to score early and control things from there. Whether Southampton can nick one is the real question - I think they can. A 2-1 or 3-1 feels about right. If you’re browsing betting promotions on New Zealand bookmakers, the handicap market offers better value than the match result at $1.24.

Manchester City -1.5 Handicap @ $1.90

At $1.24 for City to win in 90 minutes, there’s nothing in the match result. But the Asian handicap at -1.5 around $1.90 is more like it. City have won their last 21 FA Cup matches against lower-league teams, scoring 84 goals in that run - four per game.

Southampton’s defence has been solid in the Championship, but this is a completely different standard. Even without Rodri and Dias, City have enough going forward to put two or three past anyone right now.

I wouldn’t bet against Southampton scoring - Stewart and Charles can both do it at this level. But City winning by two or more feels right, and at $1.90 on best live sports betting sites, I’m comfortable with the play.