Man United vs AC Milan Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester United and AC Milan meet in Wroclaw, Poland on Sunday morning New Zealand time to close out their respective pre-season campaigns. 

The big storyline is clear: Ruben Amorim, sacked by United in January, returns as Milan’s new head coach.

In this Man United vs AC Milan preview, I look at the pre-season form on both sides and break down why I think United have the edge. I’ve also got a BTTS angle for those keen on football sports betting tips ahead of kickoff.

Manchester United

I’ve been impressed with United this pre-season. 

A 5-0 demolition of Rosenborg and a 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid were encouraging, and a 1-1 draw against Champions League holders PSG in Gothenburg was no embarrassment. Most recently they edged out Leeds this morning, 5-4 in penalties after being 1-1 at fulltime. Only their opening loss to Wrexham was a blip.

Carrick’s squad is coming together. Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans have arrived to replace Casemiro in midfield, and I think that’s a significant upgrade in athleticism and passing range. Bryan Mbeumo has two pre-season goals already and looks dangerous on that right side.

And then there are the World Cup returns. Lisandro Martinez and Kobbie Mainoo are back from their respective tournaments. Marcus Rashford is the more interesting returnee - 18 months away from Old Trafford across loans at Villa and Barcelona, and this could be his first United appearance since January 2025. I’d expect Carrick to give him some minutes off the bench.

Team News: Ugarte is out long-term after knee surgery. De Ligt is recovering from a back operation. Mount is doubtful with a foot knock from the PSG game. Sesko has a lingering shin issue. Shaw is nursing a calf injury.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Martinez, Amass; Tielemans, Santos; Diallo, Fernandes, Dorgu; Mbeumo.

AC Milan

Milan haven’t won a pre-season game yet. 

They drew with Celtic and Inter before losing 3-0 to Chelsea in Jakarta. Not ideal for Amorim as he tries to implement a system this squad wasn’t assembled for.

I’m curious about Goncalo Ramos. Milan broke their transfer record to sign him from PSG for €74 million, and he came off the bench against Inter without much of an impact. Francesco Camarda has looked more involved in the minutes he’s had.

Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 needs natural wingbacks, and Milan don’t really have them. While Pervis Estupinan and Samuel Chukwueze have been filling in, it’s a compromise. Luka Modric at 40 is still the man controlling games from central midfield, and Amorim will want more than that if Milan are going to get back into the Champions League.

Team News: Pulisic is out with a bone bruise suffered at the World Cup. Gila picked up an injury on debut and is a doubt. Leao’s future is uncertain with Galatasaray interest.

Predicted Lineup: Torriani; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Chukwueze, Fofana, Modric, Estupinan; Nkunku, Leao; Ramos.

• United have won three, drawn one and lost one of five pre-season friendlies, scoring eight goals.
• Milan are winless in three outings, conceding six.
• United beat Milan 2-1 on aggregate in their 2020-21 Europa League last-16 tie.
• Amorim lost seven of his final 12 Premier League matches in charge of United before his sacking.
• Five of United’s last six competitive fixtures against Italian opposition produced over 2.5 goals.
• Both teams scored in Milan’s first two pre-season friendlies.

I’m backing United. Pre-season form has its limits, but the difference in squad depth here is obvious. 

United finished third in the Premier League and are Champions League-bound. Milan finished fifth in Serie A and are still figuring out how Amorim’s system works with players signed for a completely different formation.

Amorim will be motivated, and Milan won’t roll over. But a side that has drawn twice and lost once, playing a 3-4-2-1 with improvised wingbacks, against a United team with its key players coming back - I don’t fancy the upset.

If you’re keen to get involved on live betting sites, watch for United to come out fast. They’ve been strong in the first half across their friendlies.

Manchester United to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.80

United should win this. Carrick will name a strong side with the Premier League opener against Hull just a week away, and his attackers have been sharp.

Milan will find the net, though. 

Ramos and Leao can both score out of nowhere. Nkunku in a free role gives them another option going forward, and even without Pulisic, Milan have still scored in two of three friendlies. United’s defence is working Martinez back to full fitness and is missing De Ligt entirely.

At $3.80, it’s a price I’m comfortable with on any of the best betting sites in NZ.