Man Utd vs Atletico Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester United and Atletico Madrid meet in Stockholm on Sunday morning New Zealand time in the biggest pre-season friendly either club has had so far this summer. United are three games into their preparations under new permanent boss Michael Carrick, while Atleti haven’t kicked a ball yet.

In this Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid preview, I look at what both squads are dealing with and where I see value in the goals markets. I’ve got a BTTS angle at a decent price for those after some football expert tips this week.

Manchester United

I’m expecting a much stronger United side here than the one that lost to Wrexham two weeks ago. Several World Cup players are eligible to return from Monday, including Bruno Fernandes, Diogo Dalot, Amad Diallo and Matheus Cunha. 

That’s a dramatic upgrade on the young squad that started in Helsinki.

Their 5-0 demolition of Rosenborg was encouraging. We’re talking five different scorers, good movement, plus Joshua Zirkzee looking sharp with the goal of the pre-season so far. Carrick used two entirely different elevens across the halves, which I’d expect again here.

The big question is fitness. Fernandes and the other returnees will have had only a few days of training with the group. I’d be surprised if any of them played more than 45 minutes. Benjamin Sesko could feature after missing the start of pre-season with a shin complaint, but that’s not confirmed either.

Team News: De Ligt is out until October with a back injury. Martinez won’t return until mid-August after picking up a knock in the World Cup final. Mainoo has a back issue and isn’t expected until the Leeds game on August 12. Ugarte is also injured. Tielemans is eligible to return but unlikely to feature given he only just got back from his World Cup break.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Heaven, Amass; Santos, Fernandes; Amad, Cunha, Zirkzee; Sesko.

Atletico Madrid

Atleti finished fourth in La Liga last season and went on a serious Champions League run, knocking out Club Brugge, Tottenham and Barcelona before Arsenal ended their campaign in the semi-finals. They also lost the Copa del Rey final to Real Sociedad on penalties. It was a season that fell just short on multiple fronts.

And now they’ve been gutted by the World Cup. Ten of their players featured in the final between Spain and Argentina. Llorente, Baena, Pubill and new signing Grimaldo won it with Spain. Musso, Molina, Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Almada and Nico Gonzalez were on the losing side with Argentina. None of them will be anywhere near this game.

That’s a serious number of absentees. What’s left is a shell of the first-choice squad, and I can’t confidently predict who Simeone will put out. New signings Morten Hjulmand and Lee Kang-in could get early minutes, but even they’ve only just arrived. The Alvarez transfer saga won’t help the mood either.

Team News: Llorente, Baena, Pubill, Grimaldo, Musso, Molina, Alvarez, G. Simeone, Almada and N. Gonzalez are all away on World Cup rest. Gimenez was at the World Cup with Uruguay and is unlikely to feature. Sorloth represented Norway but was eliminated earlier and may be available.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Le Normand, Witsel, Hancko; Morato, Hjulmand, Koke, Gallagher; Lee Kang-in, Sorloth, Correa.

• Atletico are unbeaten in the last two competitive meetings, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford and drawing 1-1 in Madrid in the 2021-22 Champions League.
• United scored five in their last pre-season outing against Rosenborg in Trondheim.
• Atleti’s season ended with a 1-5 loss at Villarreal on the final day of La Liga.
• United finished third in the Premier League under Carrick with 71 points.
• Atletico had 10 players involved in the 2026 World Cup final.

I’m tipping United to win this one. It’s pre-season, and all the usual caveats apply, but the squad imbalance is just too significant here. United will have several first-team regulars available. Atleti won’t.

That said, I’m not going heavy on the match result. Both managers will rotate throughout, especially in the second half. 

What I am confident about is goals. 

United have to integrate returning World Cup stars. Atleti have to figure out a team from whatever’s available. Neither defence will be organised enough to prevent goals.

For those tracking the best live betting sites this pre-season, this one could get interesting in the second half when substitutions change the shape of both teams entirely.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.75

United are going to create chances. Even their weakened squad managed it against Rosenborg. With Fernandes likely involved from the start, their attacking quality goes up several levels.

Atleti, even without most of their first-choice players, have enough individual quality in whoever Simeone picks to grab a goal. Koke and Angel Correa know how to hurt teams. And pre-season defending is pre-season defending.

At $1.75, it’s a price I’m comfortable with on the NZ betting sites available to Kiwi punters.