Marseille vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Marseille and Atletico Madrid meet at the Stade Velodrome on Saturday morning New Zealand time in the final pre-season fixture for both clubs before their respective league campaigns kick off later in August.

It’s Bruno Genesio’s fifth game in charge of Marseille after replacing Habib Beye in July. Atletico are coming off back-to-back friendly defeats to Manchester United and Manchester City, and still look short of their best squad with several World Cup participants yet to return.

In this Marseille vs Atletico Madrid preview, I go through form, squad availability and what I think this game will look like. I’ve got a match result pick at $2.40 for those after football expert tips this weekend.

Marseille

Marseille are four wins from five pre-season friendlies, so Genesio has got them moving quickly. 

Their 3-1 win over Athletic Bilbao at the Velodrome on Saturday was probably their best performance so far, and I liked the intensity they played with across the 90 minutes.

Losing Mason Greenwood to Fenerbahce for a reported €42 million including bonuses is the story of their summer. He scored 26 goals in all competitions last season, 16 in the league alone. Nobody in this squad replaces that output, and I’m not sure Genesio has figured out how to compensate yet. Tim Weah arrived from Juventus and Facundo Medina came in from Lens, but neither fills the Greenwood-shaped hole up front.

Their only pre-season loss has come away to Nice (3-0), and the Velodrome crowd have been engaged even for friendlies.

Team News: Geronimo Rulli could feature in goal after Argentina’s World Cup run. Kondogbia is expected to be available. No confirmed absentees from the squad.

Predicted Lineup: Rulli; Murillo, Balerdi, Medina, Merlin; Kondogbia, Hojbjerg; Weah, O’Riley, Gouiri; Maupay.

Atletico Madrid

I’m struggling to read this Atletico side right now. 

They thumped Getafe 4-1 in their opener, Ademola Lookman grabbing two, and then lost to Manchester United and Manchester City in back-to-back games.

Morten Hjulmand and Lee Kang-in are the headline summer signings. Hjulmand from Sporting CP for €40 million, Lee from PSG for a reported €35 million. Both have featured in pre-season and both will add serious quality once the season starts. Koke renewed his contract through 2027, and Lookman has been sharp across all three outings.

But this squad is still pretty light. 

Alvarez, Molina, Musso and Almada went deep with Argentina, while Llorente, Baena, Pubill and Grimaldo won it all with Spain. Gimenez was at the tournament with Uruguay too. None of them have played a pre-season minute, and that’s close to half a first-choice XI still missing.

Team News: Alvarez, Llorente, Baena, Pubill, Grimaldo, Molina, Musso, Almada and Gimenez are all expected to miss out or be limited to cameo appearances. Cardoso is out long-term following ankle surgery.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Dominguez, Le Normand, Hancko, Martinez; Hjulmand, Koke; Lee Kang-in, Mendoza, Lookman; Carlos Martin.

• Atletico have won all three previous competitive meetings with Marseille, including a 3-0 Europa League final win in 2018.
• Marseille have won four of five pre-season friendlies, scoring 11 goals.
• Atletico have lost two consecutive friendlies to English opposition.
• Both teams scored in all three of Atletico’s pre-season games.
• Marseille finished fifth in Ligue 1 last season, averaging close to two goals per game at home.

I’m backing Marseille here. 

It might seem like a punt against a side that went to the Champions League semi-finals and the Copa del Rey final last season, but this isn’t that Atletico team. Not yet. Too many first-choice players are still on post-World Cup leave, and the defeats to United and City suggest their current group haven’t gelled.

Genesio’s got them pressing well and creating chances at home, and there’s enough about Gouiri and Weah to cause this Atletico backline trouble. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s tighter than I expect - Simeone will want a result before La Liga starts. 

But at $2.40, I’m happy to back the home side on the best betting sites in NZ.

Marseille to Win @ $2.40

Atletico’s depleted squad is the angle here. Close to half their regular starters haven’t played a pre-season minute, and two defeats in their last two outings tell you where this group is at right now. Genesio’s Marseille have looked sharp, winning four of five, and playing at the Velodrome gives them an obvious edge.

At $2.40, I’m tipping Marseille to close out pre-season with a win. Worth a look if you’re chasing betting bonuses from your sportsbook this week.