Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Newcastle United and Liverpool meet at St James’ Park on Monday morning New Zealand time to open their 2026-27 Premier League campaigns. It’s a first competitive match for both Matthias Jaissle and Andoni Iraola in charge of their new clubs.

In this Newcastle vs Liverpool preview, I’ve weighed up the summer upheaval at both ends and found a BTTS-plus-result angle I like at close to $4.00 for those browsing football betting markets this week.

Newcastle

I don’t envy Jaissle. Tonali has gone to Spurs for £92.5m. Bruno Guimaraes left for Arsenal at £75m. Anthony Gordon is at Barcelona. Over £230m of talent gone in nine weeks. Jaissle has spent big in return, but almost all of it on players under 24 - Bazoumana Toure from Hoffenheim, Amar Dedic from Benfica. Promising, not proven.

Pre-season offered little reassurance. Two wins and three defeats from seven matches, including a 4-1 loss at Bristol City that panicked a fanbase already on edge. Jaissle’s pressing system looked disjointed against Everton and Leverkusen, and without Tonali or Guimaraes in midfield, there’s a lack of composure in possession that worries me.

Sven Botman and Dan Burn will anchor the defence. Nick Woltemade needs a much bigger season after an inconsistent first year. Harvey Barnes has the pace to cause problems on the break, and Yoane Wissa looked lively after his deadline-day move from Brentford last summer.

Team News: Joelinton is out with a muscle injury. Livramento is sidelined with a calf problem. Willock is a doubt after picking up a groin issue against Strasbourg. Schar and Miley face fitness tests.

Predicted Lineup: Hornicek; Dedic, Botman, Burn, Hall; Bamba, Ramsey; Toure, Woltemade, Barnes; Wissa.

Liverpool

Iraola has inherited a squad with Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz in it. Even with Mohamed Salah gone and Ibrahima Konate heading to Real Madrid, the attacking talent at Anfield is formidable. Dominik Szoboszlai caught the eye in pre-season, scoring a cracker against Sunderland and contributing two assists. Gravenberch is the ideal deep-lying midfielder for Iraola’s pressing system.

But I’m not fully convinced yet. 

Liverpool finished fifth under Arne Slot last season - a dramatic fall from their title-winning campaign the year before - and Iraola is starting from scratch with a new coaching staff and new ideas. Pre-season was mixed. Three wins, two defeats and a draw. They blew a 2-0 lead against Monaco at Anfield, which isn’t the sort of thing you brush aside.

Isak and Wirtz scored in that Monaco defeat, so the goals are clearly there. I think Iraola’s style will suit this group more than Slot’s slower approach did. Whether it’s game-ready by Sunday is another question entirely.

Team News: Ekitike is out long-term with an Achilles rupture. Bradley is sidelined with a knee injury. Gomez will miss the opener with a muscular problem. Jones and Mac Allister are doubts. Jacquet has returned to training and should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Frimpong, Van Dijk, Araujo, Tsimikas; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Wirtz, Chiesa, Gakpo; Isak.

• Liverpool won the corresponding fixture 3-2 last season via a stoppage-time winner.
• Newcastle have won just five of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Liverpool.
• Both teams scored in eight of the last 10 league encounters between these two.
• Liverpool have won their opening Premier League match in four of the last five seasons.
• Newcastle finished 12th in 2025-26 despite reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.

I’m tipping Liverpool, but I don’t think it’ll be clean. 

There’s too much individual quality in Iraola’s squad for me to go against them, even on the road at St James’ Park. Isak returning to face his former club adds a layer of needle to the occasion, and Wirtz is capable of unlocking any defence in the league when he’s feeling it.

Newcastle will have the atmosphere. Opening day, new manager, the Toon Army desperate for signs of life after a difficult summer. I can see Toure causing problems down the right with his pace. But I’m not backing a side that lost three of seven pre-season matches and is relying on Jacob Ramsey as its most experienced central midfielder.

For those checking free bets ahead of the opening weekend, I’d focus on the goals markets here. Expect an open game.

Both Teams to Score and Liverpool Win @ $3.80

Liverpool’s defence will be missing Gomez and Bradley from the start, and Alisson looked slightly off during pre-season. Newcastle will get opportunities - Barnes and Wissa have the pace to exploit the gaps Iraola’s high line will leave.

But Liverpool’s attack is on another level. Isak and Wirtz alone can punish any defence, and I expect them to put at least two past a Newcastle backline still figuring out its partnerships. BTTS went in during eight of the last 10 league meetings between these sides, and Liverpool have conceded in four of their last five away openers.

At $3.80, it’s a price I’m happy to back on the best sports betting apps in NZ this weekend.