Newcastle vs West Ham Prediction: EPL Betting Tips & Odds

Newcastle United and West Ham United meet at St James’ Park on Monday morning New Zealand time in a fixture that means far more to the visitors than the hosts. 

West Ham are 18th, two points adrift of Tottenham with two games left. Newcastle are 13th and done for the season - no Europe reachable, no relegation threat.

In this Newcastle vs West Ham preview, I look at form, injury news and why this game could produce goals. I’ve also got a BTTS angle worth a look for those hitting football betting sites ahead of the weekend.

Newcastle

With just one win in their last five, Newcastle’s season has petered out. A 3-1 home thumping of Brighton on 2 May looked like a turning point, but then they went to the City Ground and let a lead slip against Forest, conceding an 88th-minute equaliser to Elliot Anderson - a lad they sold.

Nine wins and seven defeats at St James’ Park is underwhelming for a club with these resources. They’ve conceded in 10 straight home games across all competitions, and their defence without Schar, Livramento, Krafth and Miley is patched together.

Anthony Gordon returned to the bench against Forest after a hip problem and should be available here. If Newcastle win this, it’ll come through Gordon and Harvey Barnes providing the threat William Osula can’t generate on his own.

Team News: Krafth, Schar, Livramento and Miley are all out for the season. Gordon is fit.

Predicted Lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes; Gordon, Willock, Barnes; Osula.

West Ham

Two defeats without scoring heading into the most important week of their season. Losing 0-1 to Arsenal at home was painful enough, but Callum Wilson’s 95th-minute equaliser getting chalked off by VAR made it worse. Before that, a 0-3 dismantling at Brentford.

I’m uncertain about West Ham here. Their form earlier in the spring was encouraging - 22 points from 15 games under Nuno at one stage - but momentum has stalled at the worst possible time. Jarrod Bowen is doing everything he can, with eight goals and 10 assists, plus every league minute played. If they survive, he’ll deserve most of the credit.

Crysencio Summerville’s return from injury gave them a creative boost in April. And the squad is essentially fully fit, a luxury Newcastle don’t have.

Team News: Fabianski is a long-term absentee. No other injury concerns.

Predicted Lineup: Hermansen; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf; Bowen, Soucek, Fernandes, Summerville; Pablo; Castellanos.

• Newcastle have conceded in 10 consecutive home games across all competitions.
• West Ham haven’t scored in their last two Premier League outings.
• BTTS has occurred in eight of the last 10 meetings between these sides.
• West Ham have lost just one of their last four visits to St James’ Park.
• Newcastle have won one of their last five league games.
• West Ham are two points adrift of 17th-placed Tottenham with two matches remaining.

I’m going with Newcastle here. Yes, their motivation is questionable - 13th is 13th whether they win or lose here. West Ham need the points far more, and that desperation factor is real.

But what nudges me toward the home side is how poor West Ham have been away this season. They’ve just four wins from 18 on the road, with two consecutive blanks heading into a game where they have to score. Newcastle’s defence is leaky, but Gordon and Barnes in the side should produce enough against a team who’ve conceded 62 goals this campaign.

I can see West Ham grabbing one, though. Bowen and Valentin Castellanos against a centre-back pairing of Thiaw and Botman - there are goals in that matchup. 

For those following along on the top betting websites, I think 2-1 Newcastle is the likeliest winning scoreline.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.45

Not the most exotic price, I know. But the logic is solid here.

Newcastle have conceded in every home game since January. West Ham need to score to have any chance of surviving. Bowen is too good to go three games without a goal involvement, and Newcastle’s back line has been generous all year. 

Going the other way, West Ham have shipped 62 goals this season and Newcastle’s attack is far better than their league position suggests. BTTS has come in during eight of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs.

At $1.45 it’s a leg of a multi rather than a standalone play, but I’m happy to include it on any weekend coupon. You’ll find this market across the best sports betting apps NZ has on offer.