Europa League: Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa meet at the City Ground on Friday morning New Zealand time in the Europa League semi-final first leg. It’s the first all-Midlands UEFA tie in European football history.

Forest haven’t been this far in Europe for 42 years. Villa, under Unai Emery, are favourites for the trophy and have already brushed past Lille and Bologna in the knockouts.

In this Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa preview, I work through their form and the goalscorer angle. For those keen on a punt, I’ve found a play that pays better than the match result on NZ betting apps.

Nottingham Forest

Forest are unbeaten in their last eight across all competitions. Their last three results read 1-0 over Porto in the quarter-final second leg, 4-1 at home to Burnley, and 5-0 away at Sunderland on Friday. The Sunderland win was their biggest top-flight away result since 1995.

Vitor Pereira’s appointment in February has flipped Forest’s season around. They’re now eight points clear of the drop with a European semi-final in front of them.

Morgan Gibbs-White is the man in form. He scored a hat-trick against Burnley and added an assist at Sunderland, taking him to six goal contributions across 13 Europa League appearances this season. Igor Jesus has been their European spearhead.

The 1-1 draw between these sides 18 days ago at this same ground is worth a look. Villa had 59% possession but only got a Murillo own goal in return. Forest equalised through Neco Williams’ header before half-time.

Team News: Hudson-Odoi is out for the season. Boly, Savona and Victor are sidelined. Murillo is expected to miss the first leg with a hamstring injury picked up against Burnley, and Cunha is a serious doubt after going off with an arm issue against Sunderland.

Predicted Lineup: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Anderson, Sangare; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Igor Jesus.

Aston Villa

Villa lost 1-0 at Fulham on Saturday to break a long unbeaten league run. That was their first defeat since early March, but their European form is a separate matter. They beat Bologna 4-0 in the quarter-final second leg for a 7-1 aggregate, with Ollie Watkins ticking off his 100th Villa goal.

Their European away form has been strong this season, including wins over Lille and Bologna in the knockouts. Emery has won this competition four times in his career, three with Sevilla and once with Villarreal. He doesn’t really lose Europa League ties at this stage.

Morgan Rogers is the danger man. He had two big chances in the recent 1-1 draw at this ground. Watkins scored Villa’s opener when these sides met at Villa Park in January and has previous against Forest.

The concern is defensive midfield. With Boubacar Kamara out long-term and Amadou Onana picking up a knee issue against Fulham, Lamare Bogarde looks set to partner Tielemans. That’s not a shape Villa want against Gibbs-White and Anderson.

Team News: Kamara, Barkley and Alysson are out. Onana is doubtful with a knee issue, and Abraham injured his shoulder against Sunderland. Sancho is back in contention.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Pau Torres, Digne; Bogarde, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

• Villa beat Forest 3-1 at Villa Park in January, with Watkins and a McGinn double doing the damage.
• Both teams have scored in the last five meetings between these clubs.
• Watkins has scored in three of his last five appearances against Forest.
• Villa hold a 7-4 edge in the all-time fixture record.

Forest are unbeaten in their last three home league fixtures against Villa, including the 1-1 draw at this ground three weeks ago. Gibbs-White is in the form of his career and the City Ground will be loud.

Villa are still the better squad and Emery’s record in this tournament can’t be ignored. But I think this first leg ends level. Forest have momentum and home crowd noise to feed off, while Villa are juggling a top-four chase with midfield injuries.

I’m picking a draw with goals. Both defences have been leaky lately and these sides know each other inside out. The goalscorer market is where I see value, especially when paired with betting promotions from the bookies.

Morgan Gibbs-White Anytime Goalscorer @ $3.40

Gibbs-White has five goals in his last three Forest appearances. Three came against Burnley in midweek and he’s playing with the freedom of a man who knows World Cup scouts are watching. Six goal contributions across 13 Europa League appearances back him up too.

Villa’s midfield without Kamara and possibly Onana plays into Forest’s hands. Bogarde alongside Tielemans is light defensively, and Gibbs-White drifts into pockets between the lines as well as anyone in the league.

At $3.40 for the Forest captain to score in a match where I expect both teams to find the net, I’m happy to take the price. Football sports betting rewards backing in-form players against weakened opposition.