Spurs vs MK Dons Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Tottenham and MK Dons meet at Hotspur Way on Thursday morning New Zealand time in a pre-season friendly, with Roberto De Zerbi getting his first real look at a revamped squad ahead of the 2026-27 campaign.

Spurs have spent over 230 million pounds this summer on Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes and Jan Paul van Hecke, alongside free transfers for Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi. 

In this Tottenham vs MK Dons preview, I look at which new arrivals might feature and where I see value in the goals markets on football betting sites this week.

Tottenham

I can’t remember a stranger pre-season for Spurs. Twelve months ago they were Europa League winners. Now they are coming off a 17th-placed Premier League finish that went to the final day, a 1-0 win over Everton the only thing separating them from the Championship.

De Zerbi has been busy. Tonali, who was not at the World Cup after Italy failed to qualify, is the headline arrival and should be available from the start. Fernandes is another who was not called up and could feature. Robertson was knocked out of the World Cup with Scotland in the group stage and might have had enough time to get some training in, though new signings after a tournament often get managed carefully.

Micky van de Ven and van Hecke were both eliminated in the Round of 32 with the Netherlands and could potentially be involved, but I would not expect much more than cameos from either. Cristian Romero played in Monday’s World Cup final with Argentina, so he will not be anywhere near this one.

With Dejan Kulusevski and Xavi Simons still out long-term, and Wilson Odobert also sidelined, this will be a squad full of new faces and academy players.

Team News: Kulusevski, Simons and Odobert are long-term absentees. Romero, Son, Sarr, Johnson and Solanke are expected to be unavailable due to World Cup commitments. Robertson is back in training.

Predicted Lineup: Kinsky; Spence, van Hecke, Senesi, Udogie; Tonali, Fernandes; Gray, Maddison, Robertson; Richarlison.

MK Dons

Paul Warne guided MK Dons back to League One after finishing second in League Two last season, and they have come out of the blocks well in pre-season. A 4-1 win at Maidenhead on July 10 was followed by a narrow 2-1 defeat to Croatian top-flight side Istra 1961 in Pula last week.

I have some respect for what Warne does with these squads. Five promotions across his career is no accident, and MK Dons scored 77 goals in League Two last season with a goal difference of plus-35. Callum Paterson scored 16 of those, and Rushian Hepburn-Murphy and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing both chipped in regularly.

For a League One side visiting a Premier League training ground, the outcome here is far less important than getting minutes into players’ legs. Warne will rotate across the 90, as he did against Maidenhead. But they will not just roll over. Pre-season friendlies against bigger sides are opportunities to impress, and this group has momentum after winning promotion.

Team News: Wintle joined from Cardiff this week and could feature. No significant injury concerns reported from the Croatia camp.

Predicted Lineup: MacGillivray; Jones, Ekpiteta, Offord, Tomlinson; Wintle, Collar; Mendez-Laing, Gilbey, Hepburn-Murphy; Paterson.

• Spurs won 3-1 in the only previous friendly between these two sides, at Stadium MK in July 2021.
• Tottenham finished 17th in the Premier League last season with 41 points.
• MK Dons scored 77 goals in 46 League Two games last season, the highest tally in the division.
• Pre-season friendlies involving Premier League sides have averaged over 3.5 goals per game across the last two summers.
• Both teams scored in three of Spurs’ last four pre-season openers.

I am expecting a comfortable Spurs win, but not a blowout. De Zerbi will want to see his new signings link up and get minutes into their legs, and Tonali and Fernandes should be operating at a completely different level against League One opposition even this early in pre-season.

MK Dons will have a go, though. Warne does not set his sides up defensively, and in a closed-door game with nothing on the line, both managers will prioritise getting players game time over locking things down. I reckon Spurs score three or four but MK Dons grab one of their own.

If you are checking the best new betting sites for pre-season value, the goals markets are the place to be here.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.20

Pre-season friendlies between Premier League and lower-league sides tend to produce goals, and this one has the ingredients for plenty. Spurs will want to put on a performance for De Zerbi. MK Dons will attack. There will be wholesale substitutions across the 90 minutes, which always disrupts defensive shape and creates chances at both ends.

Spurs scored three in their 2021 friendly against MK Dons and that was with a similarly rotated squad. Over 3.5 goals at $2.20 is the angle I am backing on the sign up bonus sites available in New Zealand.