USA vs Germany Football Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Both sides have one more chance to test their squads before the 2026 World Cup gets underway next week. Pochettino’s Americans beat Senegal 3-2 last weekend to snap a two-game losing run, while Germany have won eight on the bounce and hammered Finland 4-0 in Mainz.

In this United States vs Germany preview, I look at form and fitness for two sides at very different stages of their World Cup preparation. I’ve got a goals-market pick at $2.70 for those checking betting apps in NZ this week.

United States

I’m cautiously optimistic about the Americans after the Senegal result, but only cautiously. 

Christian Pulisic’s goal and assist ended a five-month drought that stretched across 21 games for club and country, and Folarin Balogun added a second-half clincher. Before that, though, March was a disaster - a 5-2 loss to Belgium where the second half completely unravelled, followed by a 2-0 defeat to Portugal.

Chris Richards is their biggest worry. He missed the Senegal game with an ankle injury and his World Cup availability is still unclear. Pochettino went with a back three of Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie and Alex Freeman, and Sadio Mane scored twice off defensive errors.

Pulisic is everything for this team. Another goal before the World Cup opener against Paraguay would do wonders for a group that hasn’t always looked confident.

Team News: Richards is a major doubt with his ankle. Adams is available but has battled recurring hamstring problems. Pochettino made 10 half-time substitutions against Senegal and will rotate again.

Predicted Lineup: Turner; Dest, Trusty, McKenzie, A. Robinson; Adams, McKennie; Weah, Tillman, Pulisic; Balogun.

Germany

Eight straight wins. Fourteen goals in three friendlies this year. I’m a big fan of what Julian Nagelsmann has done with this group, and Florian Wirtz is the main reason I think they’re a serious World Cup contender. Two goals and two assists against Switzerland, then a goal against Finland. He’s been the best player on the pitch in every window.

Jamal Musiala’s return from the broken leg is the other big story. He scored in the 63rd minute against Finland and looked sharp for someone who’s barely played since his horror injury in the Club World Cup. Kai Havertz missed that Finland game after Arsenal’s Champions League final loss to PSG but will rejoin for Chicago.

Deniz Undav took a knock scoring his second against Finland and went down the tunnel. If he’s not fit, Havertz slots in up front and I don’t think Germany lose anything.

Team News: Undav is a doubt after picking up a knock against Finland. Manuel Neuer missed that match with a calf issue but is expected to feature. Havertz rejoins after the Champions League final. Gnabry is out of the squad entirely with a torn adductor.

Predicted Lineup: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum; Gross, Stiller; Wirtz, Musiala, Karl; Havertz.

• Germany have won eight consecutive matches since losing to Slovakia in their World Cup qualifying opener.
• Germany won the last meeting 3-1 in a 2023 friendly in Connecticut.
• Germany scored 10 goals across their three 2026 friendlies (4 vs Switzerland, 2 vs Ghana, 4 vs Finland).
• Over 2.5 goals came in during all three of Germany’s warm-up matches this year.
• Wirtz has five goal involvements across three international friendlies this year.

I can’t go against Germany here. 

Wirtz and Musiala operating in the same attacking midfield is a problem most sides at this World Cup won’t be equipped to deal with. Pochettino’s lot even looked vulnerable at the back against a Senegal side that shouldn’t have caused them as much trouble as they did.

I do expect the US to score. Pulisic has some confidence back, Balogun looked hungry off the bench, and Soldier Field will demand goals before the tournament. But Germany are a colossal step up from Senegal, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t control this comfortably.

For those tracking football betting tips ahead of the World Cup, I’m tipping Germany 3-1.

Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score @ $2.70

Germany’s three friendlies this year produced goals freely - eight from their end in the Switzerland and Finland games alone. Pochettino’s side won’t be cautious either, with the World Cup six days away and Pulisic needing game time to get fully sharp.

BTTS came in against both Senegal (3-2) and Belgium (5-2) in recent outings, and Germany conceded in two of their three warm-up matches. Over 2.5 goals has happened in all three of Germany’s friendlies and in the USA’s last match against Senegal.

At $2.70 on the legal betting sites available in New Zealand, I’m happy to back this one.