World Cup 2026: Odds, Best Bets & Multi Bet │ 30 June

Brazil to win ($1.74)

I’ve got Brazil here, but I’m not sleeping on Japan. 

Hajime Moriyasu’s side went through Group F unbeaten - drawing with the Netherlands 2-2, smashing Tunisia 4-0, and holding Sweden to 1-1 - all without Kaoru Mitoma, Takumi Minamino, or captain Wataru Endo. Daichi Kamada has three goals from midfield and Ayase Ueda two from up front. 

Japan also beat Brazil 3-2 in an October friendly, so this isn’t a team short on belief.

But Vinicius Junior has four group-stage goals and looks like the most dangerous attacker in the tournament. Raphinha is out with a hamstring problem, but Neymar returned off the bench against Scotland and is expected to feature. Brazil’s defence conceded just once across three games while scoring seven. 

At $1.74 I still think there’s enough there for a win in 90 minutes, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Japan force extra time.

✓ Long Shot: Japan to qualify ($3.40)
✓ Extra Tip: BTTS Yes ($1.90)

Germany to win ($1.42)

This is the safest pick on the card, and I’m comfortable with it despite its short price. 

Germany topped Group E with 10 goals in three matches - a 7-1 rout of Curacao, a hard-fought 2-1 over Ivory Coast, and a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador that came after their spot was already secured. Julian Nagelsmann has Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Deniz Undav all available, and the attacking depth is frightening.

Paraguay got through as Group D’s third-placed side on four points. They beat Turkey 1-0, drew 0-0 with Australia, then lost 4-1 to the USA. Gustavo Alfaro’s team work hard - they average 121 duel attempts per game, the highest in the tournament - but their shot creation is among the worst. 

I don’t see where Paraguay’s goals come from against this German defence.

✓ Long Shot: Draw at full time ($4.84)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.75)

Netherlands to win ($2.10)

This is the pick I’m least sure about, and at $2.10 the market agrees. 

Both sides finished their groups on seven points and both are unbeaten. Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil on the opening day and have defended with discipline ever since, conceding just three times across three games. Achraf Hakimi has been outstanding and Ismael Saibari has three goals from midfield.

I’m siding with the Netherlands because of their firepower. 

Ronald Koeman’s side scored 10 in the group stage - Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey have combined for five goals. They’ve conceded in every game too, so this won’t be comfortable. I’d be nervous backing Morocco at this price in a knockout tie, though - they’ve been the better side against top opposition so far. 

It’s a risk, and I’m prepared to be wrong.

✓ Long Shot: Morocco to win ($3.60)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($2.25)