Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips – NBA 5 November

The Oklahoma City Thunder have six players on the injury report, and they still went to Cleveland and won 117-112 on Tuesday. Now the Cleveland Cavaliers get the return leg at Paycom Center. It tips off at 2:00pm NZT on Thursday 5 November.

Cleveland were favourites for that first game. The market has flipped since, and OKC are 2.5-point favourites at home across NBA betting markets.

Odds from Betya, correct at 9:00am NZT, 4 November. Subject to change.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Last 5: W-W-L-W-L · Record: 4-3 · ATS: 2-5

Cleveland made 18 threes on Tuesday and lost anyway. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell went 11-for-27 between them, and I need more than that if the Cavs are going to win in Oklahoma City. Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson are both out, so Meleek Thomas should get big minutes after scoring 17 in the first game. Evan Mobley was efficient with 16 points on 11 shots, and I’d like to see him used more.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Last 5: W-W-L-L-W · Record: 5-2 · ATS: 4-3

I didn’t see Tuesday’s win coming from the Thunder.

OKC had scored 96 and 98 in their previous two games, both heavy defeats. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took 35 shots in Cleveland and finished with 43.

Ajay Mitchell is their second option with Jalen Williams gone, and he chipped in 20. Without Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein is doing work in the paint. They’re also 3-0 at Paycom Center so far.

(1) Watson has tightness in his right hamstring. He was questionable before Tuesday’s game and is listed as out for this one.
(2) Tyson sprained his right ankle and has missed Cleveland’s last two games.
(3) Tomlin has a stress reaction in his lower back and was ruled out of Tuesday’s game.
(4) Holmgren has a small tear in his right patellar tendon and is expected to miss eight to 10 weeks.
(5) Williams fractured his left fibula and dislocated his ankle. He’s had surgery and could miss the season.
(6) Wallace had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and he could also miss the season.
(7) Caruso sprained his right ankle and is still listed as out.
(8) Sorber is recovering from surgery on his right knee.
(9) Topic is out after surgery on his lower back.

Losing Williams hurts OKC the most, as he was the second creator Gilgeous-Alexander needs, and it’s one reason I expect a slower game.

Tuesday’s result made it three straight wins for Oklahoma City in this matchup.

• Team trend – Cleveland have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
• Player trend – Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed 14 rebounds in the first meeting, seven of them at the offensive end.
• Scoring trend – Five of OKC’s seven games this season have finished below 225 points.

I’m most confident betting on the total in this clash. Both teams are playing their second game in three nights, and OKC rank seventh in defensive rating, so I’m expecting tired legs and plenty of missed shots late on. 

A score in the low 220s looks about right to me. If Cleveland get their threes going early, I could be wrong, and that’s the risk I’m taking.

Most NBA predictions I’ve seen have OKC winning again. I agree, but only just. Harden and Mitchell won’t shoot that badly every night, and I’m wary of laying points with this many Thunder players out.

My prediction: Thunder 112-107.

Under 228.5 Total Points – $1.91

Tuesday’s game finished on 229 points, so I’ll admit this would have lost by half a point at this number.

But OKC needed 21-for-23 free-throw shooting and 43 from Gilgeous-Alexander to get there, and I don’t see that happening twice in three days.

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