Timberwolves vs Rockets Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips – NBA 5 November

Anthony Edwards won’t be back until around Christmas, so the Minnesota Timberwolves head to Houston as 9.5-point underdogs. Tip-off at Toyota Center is 2:30pm NZT on Thursday 5 November. The Houston Rockets are 7-1 and have won all four home games, so I understand the price. Read on to find out why I still think it’s a couple of points too big though.

Odds from Betovo, correct at 10:00am NZT, 4 November. Subject to change.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Last 5: L-L-W-L-W · Record: 5-3 · ATS: 7-1

LaMelo Ball has led Minnesota in scoring in two of their four games without Edwards, including a 34-point night against Milwaukee.

I’m more interested in their size. Rudy Gobert and Joan Beringer combined for 10 offensive rebounds in that win, and Houston are light up front this week.

Jonathan Kuminga and Ayo Dosunmu have each led them in scoring once since Edwards went down, so the load is spread around and Houston can’t just focus on Ball.

Houston Rockets

Last 5: W-W-L-W-W · Record: 7-1 · ATS: 7-1

Kiwi fans will have to wait for Steven Adams, who’s out with a calf strain, and Clint Capela is out too. That puts more on Alperen Sengun, though he’s coping fine. Against Boston he went 12-for-15 for 26 points, and Kevin Durant only needed six shots in a 16-point win. Houston have outscored Boston and OKC by 37 points across their last two games. I’d expect Sengun to go at Gobert in the post all night.

(1) Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in late October and could miss up to two months. He was averaging 33.3 points before the injury.
(2) DiVincenzo is still working back from the right Achilles he tore in last season’s playoffs, with an estimated return in early April.
(3) Shannon has a left hip contusion and also missed the win over Milwaukee.
(4) Adams strained his right soleus and has played just once this season. There’s no firm return date yet.
(5) Capela sprained his right ankle and missed the win over Boston.
(6) Sheppard has a low back strain, though he played through it against Boston and scored eight points.

Edwards being out is why the Line is this big, but Minnesota have still won two of their last four without him, including a 26-point win over the Clippers.

Houston took the January meeting last season 110-105, but Minnesota won the next two, 110-108 in March and 136-132 in April.

• Underdog trend – Minnesota won that April game as 9.5-point underdogs.
• Over trend – Five of Houston’s eight games this season have gone over the total.
• Scoring trend – Houston have scored at least 109 points in all eight games this season.
• Player trend – Sengun is averaging 22.8 points and 7.4 assists this season.

Houston should win, so I’ve got them by six. With Adams and Capela out, Minnesota have the size to compete on the glass, and Ball gives them a scorer when it gets tight.

These two put up 268 points in April, though Houston’s defence ranks seventh and I can’t see a repeat. I’d still rather leave the total alone. Durant has averaged 22 points a game, and I’d expect him to be busier here than he was against Boston.

If Houston start fast, the Line could grow on live betting sites, so there’s an argument for waiting until the first break.

My prediction: Rockets 114-108.

Timberwolves +9.5 Line – $1.91

Nine and a half points is a big cushion for a side whose three losses have come by 17 points combined, and one of those was against a strong San Antonio side.

Anyone looking to bet on NBA underdogs this season will know Minnesota well, as they’ve covered in seven of eight games.

Betovo, one of the newest NZ betting sites in our top 10, has Timberwolves +9.5 at $1.91.

Play to: $1.80

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