Mavericks vs Heat Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips – NBA 27 October

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center, with tip-off at 12:30pm NZT on Tuesday 27 October. Miami are 0-3, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is still waiting on his first win in a Heat jersey.

Most NZ betting sites have the Heat as 8.5-point favourites. I think that’s too many for a side conceding 124.7 points a game, even with Cooper Flagg missing for Dallas.

Odds from Zotabet, correct at 9:00am NZT, 26 October. Subject to change.

Dallas Mavericks

Last 3: L-W-L · Record: 1-2 · ATS: 1-2

Losing Flagg to a shoulder sprain hurts. He scored 32 on opening night, and Dallas led by 34 at half-time in Indianapolis before he was ruled out.

Kyrie Irving is who I’m keeping an eye on. He rested on the second night of the back-to-back against San Antonio, and his minutes are being eased up after 597 days out. If he plays 30, Dallas have a guard who can get his own shot late in games.

Miami Heat

Last 3: L-L-L · Record: 0-3 · ATS: 0-3

I don’t think Miami are as bad as 0-3 suggests, but their defence has been loose. Opponents have made 42% of their threes, and nobody has scored fewer than 115 against them.

Antetokounmpo has been a handful in the paint, yet he fouled out in Charlotte with 14 points. Dallas will throw Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at him all night. Klay Thompson faces his old team too, after a 9-of-26 start from deep.

(1) Flagg sprained his left shoulder after a flagrant foul from Aaron Nesmith against Indiana. He’ll be re-evaluated this week, and ESPN lists 2 November as his earliest return.
(2) Irving rested against San Antonio to manage his left knee. ESPN had him pencilled in to return for this game, so check the final report before tip-off.
(3) Lively is still recovering from right foot surgery, and CBS Sports lists 28 October as his earliest return.
(4) Aldama is recovering from right knee surgery and isn’t expected back before 28 October.
(5) Martin has a right thumb sprain and is expected to miss games until at least 2 November.
(6) Biberovic has right heel bursitis, with 2 November his earliest listed return.

Miami have nobody on their injury report. Flagg is the big absence, and he’s the main reason this Line has stretched to 8.5.

The teams split last season’s series 1-1, with Dallas winning the most recent meeting 118-108 in December.

• Totals trend – Both meetings last season finished well under the total, at 208 and 226 points.
• ATS trend – Dallas went 14-16 ATS as underdogs of 8.5 points or more last season.
• Team trend – Dallas turned the ball over 21 times in their opening-night loss to Houston.
• Player trend – Antetokounmpo has scored 35 or more in two of his three games for Miami.

I’m picking Miami to win, but not by nine points. Their defence hasn’t given me a reason to trust them as big favourites yet, plus Irving should have the ball in his hands a lot more with Flagg out.

It’s a risk backing a team missing their best player. Still, both teams come in off a single day’s rest, so Miami have no rest edge here.

I’m also erring towards Under 234, as I expect Antetokounmpo to spend long spells at the free-throw line. If you’re putting together your NBA best bets for Tuesday, I’d have the Under on the list.

My prediction: Heat 114-108.

Mavericks +8.5 Line – $1.91

I’d want a lot more from Miami before laying 8.5 with them. Their threes are falling at 30% so far.

Irving gives Dallas someone to go to late, and Miami have trailed by 20 or more in all three of their games.

You can back Mavericks +8.5 at $1.91 with Zotabet, one of the NBA betting sites I use most.

Play to: $1.80

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