Warriors vs Lakers Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips – NBA 22 October

The Golden State Warriors open their season against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena, with tip-off at 3:00pm NZT on Thursday 22 October. It’s the Lakers’ first season after eight years with LeBron James, so this is Luka Doncic’s team now.

Golden State arrive short-handed and sweating on Stephen Curry’s ankle. The Lakers have firmed from 5.5 to 7.5-point favourites, and it’s the first game I’d look at if you want to bet on NBA today.

Odds from Picklebet, correct at 2:00pm NZT 20 October. Subject to change.

Golden State Warriors

Last 5 (preseason): W-L-W-W-W · 2025-26 record: 37-45 · ATS 2025-26: 34-47-1

I’m not reading much into this 4-2 preseason. Golden State beat the Lakers twice, 124-98 and 101-89, but Doncic missed the Las Vegas game.

Their turnovers worry me more. They coughed it up 104 times in their first five preseason games before tidying up to 14 against Portland. Curry and Draymond Green looked sharp together in that finale, and Curry should play through his sprained ankle. But he’s 38, and the Warriors went 13-26 without him last season.

Los Angeles Lakers

Last 5 (preseason): W-L-W-L-L · 2025-26 record: 53-29 · ATS 2025-26: 50-41-1

Doncic led the league with 33.5 points a game last season, and Austin Reaves added 23.3. Walker Kessler is the new piece, and his shot-blocking is what their defence lacked last season.

But I’m less sure about the fit. Their new big three only played one half together in preseason, in the 121-106 loss to Denver. That’s not much time for a group that averaged 23.7 turnovers in its first three exhibitions. Collin Sexton should help the bench once he’s fit.

• Stephen Curry is listed as questionable for the Warriors with a right ankle sprain, and although he’s officially a game-time decision, coach Steve Kerr has said he expects him to play (1).
• Porzingis is the absence I’d worry about most, because Golden State have little size to match up with Kessler, and that pushes me towards the Lakers on the line (2).

The Lakers took last season’s series 3-1, although Golden State won the opening-night meeting in LA 119-109.

• H2H – Los Angeles won the most recent meeting 119-103 in April.
• Team trend – Golden State won only 15 of their 41 road games last season.
• Totals trend – Warriors games went over the total in 49 of 82 outings last season.
• Player trend – Doncic has averaged 30.7 points per game against the Warriors in his career.

I’m backing the Lakers to win by double figures. Curry will have his moments, but I don’t trust a 38-year-old on a sprained ankle to drag a short rotation through 48 minutes on the road.

Kessler should own the paint, and Doncic will hunt whichever big is guarding him in the pick-and-roll. Reaves dropped 28 on them in Las Vegas, too. My doubt is the turnovers, which could have this tight at half-time.

I’d leave the total alone. Golden State went over plenty last season, but both preseason meetings finished well under 230.

It’s the first of my NBA predictions this season where I’m happy to lay more than seven points.

My prediction: Lakers 120-110.

Lakers -7.5 Line – $1.91

Los Angeles have Doncic and Reaves fit, while Golden State are without Butler and Porzingis, who would both have started.

My one hesitation is the move from 5.5 to 7.5, which has taken some value out of this price, but not enough to put me off.

If you’ve got free bets to use this week, this is where I’d put one.

You can back the Lakers -7.5 at $1.91 with Picklebet.

Play to: $1.85

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