Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips – NBA 23 October

The Denver Nuggets open their 2026-27 season against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center, with tip-off at 2:30pm NZT on Friday 23 October. OKC are 8.5-point favourites, and I think that’s a big number for a game between two of the West’s best.

Denver won their last 12 regular-season games before losing in the first round. It’s the first game I’d look for on NBA betting sites this week.

Odds from Sportaza, correct at 9:00am NZT 22 October. Subject to change.

Denver Nuggets

Last 5 (preseason): L-W-W-L-W · 2025-26 record: 54-28 · ATS 2025-26: 44-38

I’m more worried about Denver’s bench than their starting five. Four of the five reserves David Adelman used most last season have gone, and DeMar DeRozan is coming off the bench for the first time since his rookie season.

Their starters look ready. Jamal Murray had the best regular season of his career, and Nikola Jokic went 7-of-8 from the field in the preseason win over the Lakers. Denver scored more points than any other team last season.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Last 5 (incl. preseason): L-L-W-L-W · 2026-27 record: 1-0 · ATS 2025-26: 39-42-1

OKC answered any questions about their 1-4 preseason with a 116-104 win in San Antonio. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32, and Chet Holmgren had four blocks after missing preseason with a bruised quad.

I’m less sure about their wings. Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins were both traded to Atlanta, and Jalen Williams went 5-of-16 from the field. Jared McCain covered for that with six threes off the bench.

(1) Strawther sprained his left knee in the preseason loss to the Clippers and will be re-evaluated in six weeks.
(2) Jones strained his left hamstring early in camp and missed all of preseason. He practised on Sunday and expects to play.
(3) Oweh ruptured his right Achilles tendon against the Pacers on 13 October and will miss the season.
(4) Topic is still recovering from back surgery, with no return date set.
(5) Sorber missed the opener in San Antonio with a knee issue, and no return date has been given.

Strawther's absence will have the most impact I reckon - he was one of the few shooters on Denver’s new bench, and it’s why I’m taking the points rather than backing the Nuggets outright.

Oklahoma City won last season’s series 3-1, but Denver won the final meeting 127-107 at home in April.

• Totals trend – All four meetings last season went past 230 points.
• Team trend – The Thunder covered the spread in only 39 of their 82 games last season.
• Nuggets trend – Denver went over the total in 51 of their 82 games last season.
• Player trend – Gilgeous-Alexander has now scored 20 or more points in 141 straight games.

I’ve got the Thunder winning, but not by nine. OKC looked sharp in San Antonio, and Denver’s new bench will probably cost them a quarter somewhere.

I just can’t see OKC pulling clear of a Nuggets starting five with Jokic and Murray both fit. They went toe to toe with OKC for most of last season’s series.

I’m less keen on the Over after OKC held the Spurs to 38.7% shooting. If the Thunder jump out early, live betting sites might give you a better number on Denver than 8.5.

My prediction: Thunder 118-112.

Nuggets +8.5 Line – $1.87

OKC won three of last season’s meetings, and none of those wins came by more than 10 points.

OKC’s bench scored 48 in San Antonio, and I don’t expect McCain to drain six threes again on Friday.

You can back Nuggets +8.5 at $1.87 with Sportaza, which is also one of the better betting apps NZ punters can use.

Play to: $1.80

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