NRL 2026 Finals Week 1 – Betting Tips & Predictions

It all comes down to this! The 2026 finals series is just about to start, and we’re keen to see how this one shapes up. The four games are all locked in, and the top four teams will be looking to win their Qualification Final to get a ticket straight through to the Preliminary Final.

We kick things off on Friday nights with the first Elimination Final between the Rabbitohs and Knights. Then, on Saturday we have the first Qualification Final between the Warriors and Dolphins, and the second Elimination Final between the Sharks and Cowboys. We wrap things up on Sunday afternoon with the final Qualification Final between the Panthers and Roosters.

The finals series kicks off with the Rabbitohs up against the Knights. It’s been an emotion-charged couple of weeks for the Rabbitohs, sending off Jai Arrow in the best way possible, but now it’s time to get to business. The Rabbitohs do come into this game in great form, winning four of their last five, including their last two in a row over the Titans (42-22) and Roosters (50-20).

While Jai Arrow won’t be taking the field for this game, they’ll want to win for him and keep their season alive. The Knights, on the other hand, have lost their last two games in a row to the Sea Eagles (24-44) and Warriors (32-46). They had their bye last round, so they will have fresh legs. Tallis Duncan should be back for the Rabbitohs, but Euan Aitken is out for the rest of the season. For the Knights, both Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney are out.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$1.40
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$1.40
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$1.40

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs - Matt Dufty, Alex Johnston, Latrell Mitchell, Jack Wighton, Campbell Graham, Cody Walker, Jayden Sullivan, Tevita Tatola, Brandon Smith, Keaon Koloamatangi, David Fifita, Tallis Duncan, Cameron Murray, Jye Gray, Lachlan Hubner, Sean Keppie, Jamie Humphreys, Adam Elliott & Latrell Siegwalt

Newcastle Knights - Kalyn Ponga, Dom Young, Dane Gagai, Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew, Fletcher Sharpe, Sandon Smith, Cody Hopwood, Phoenix Crossland, Tyson Frizell, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua, Mat Croker, Fletcher Hunt, Thomas Cant, Lachlan Crouch, Pasami Saulo, Harrison Graham & Toby Winter

Saturday NRL action kicks off with the first Qualification Final when the Dolphins head across the ditch to face off against the Warriors. The Warriors weren’t able to win the Minor Premiership, but a top two finish was all they needed to keep home finals up until the Grand Final. There’s no doubt the Dolphins are a great team, but this is the final time they’ve made the finals; can they handle the added pressure?

Both teams are heading into this game with big winning streaks. The Warriors have won six in a row, and the Dolphins have won seven in a row. Leka Halasima looks set to return from his minor ankle injury, plus both Kurt Capewell and Wayde Egan are back after missing the last game against the Sea Eagles. A host of players return for the Dolphins as well, with Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki all back.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Dolphins +4.5	NZ$1.90
	Warriors to win	NZ$1.59
	Dolphins +4.5	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

New Zealand Warriors - Taine Tuaupiki, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Ali Leiataua, Leka Halasima, Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Chanel Harris-Tavita, Te Maire Martin, James Fisher-Harris, Wayde Egan, Mitch Barnett, Kurt Capewell, Jacob Laban, Erin Clark, Sam Healey, Tanner Stowers-Smith, Demitric Vaimauga, Jackson Ford, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava & Adam Pompey

Dolphins - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Jamayne Isaako, Jack Bostock, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima, Isaiya Katoa, Tom Flegler, Jeremy Marshall-King, Tom Gilbert, Max Plath, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Morgan Knowles, Kurt Donoghoe, Ray Stone, Francis Molo, Felise Kaufusi, Connelly Lemuelu & Jake Averillo

A lot is happening this round, but here are the key factors that will most likely impact your bets:

1. The Rabbitohs are coming into this one in much better form, and while the Knights did have last round off, they have lost key players in Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney, plus Francis Manuleleua is under an injury cloud.
2. While I think the Warriors are good enough to win this one, I don’t expect a blowout. These two sides have played each other twice this season, and both games were decided by just two points.
3. While the Roosters beat the Panthers only back in Round 24, the two sides have been on different trajectories since then. The Panthers are a well-oiled machine in the finals, and the Roosters are without Sam Walker.

Multi of the Week

My multi of the week comes across three different games in Finals Week 1:

• Leg 1 - South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
• Leg 2 - New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
• Leg 3 - Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters

The second and last Elimination Final sees the Sharks welcome the Cowboys to Allianz Stadium. While this is the Sharks' home game, their bid to play at the suburban Ocean Protect Stadium for this one was knocked back. The home side will have to put that to the back of their mind in this do-or-die clash. Both sides don’t exactly come into this one in form, with the Sharks winning just one of their last five and the Cowboys winning only two of their last five.

In a massive boost, we could see Braydon Trindall back, plus the likes of Tom Hazelton, Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey, KL Iro, and Teig Wilton are all returning from suspension/ being rested. For the Cowboys, both Jeremiah Nanai and Griffin Neame were rested in the game against the Raiders, but they should be back for this one. Rueben Cotter could be out, though, as he is facing a one-match ban for his high shot on Josh Papali'i.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Cowboys +6.5	NZ$1.90
	Most Tries - Sharks	NZ$1.56
	Cowboys +6.5	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

Cronulla Sharks - Will Kennedy, Sione Katoa, Mawene Hiroti, KL Iro, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Braydon Trindall, Nicho Hynes, Addin Fanua-Blake, Blayke Brailey, Jesse Colquhoun, Briton Nikora, Teig Wilton, Cam McInnes, Siosifa Talakai, Toby Rudolf, Oregon Kaufusi, Tom Hazelton, Billy Burns & Niwhai Puru

North Queensland Cowboys - Scott Drinkwater, Braidon Burns, Jaxon Purdue, Tom Chester, Zac Laybutt, Jake Clifford, Tom Dearden, Coen Hess, Reed Mahoney, Jason Taumalolo, Heilum Luki, Jeremiah Nanai, Rueben Cotter, Soni Luke, Griffin Neame, Tom Mikaele, John Bateman, Kai O'Donnell & Ethan King

Week 1 of the finals wraps up with the Panthers up against the Roosters at CommBank Stadium. The Panthers have claimed yet another Minor Premiership, but there’s bigger fish to fry right now. The Panthers must like their chances against a Roosters side that’s lost their last three games in a row. It all started with the one-point loss to the Tigers, then they lost to the Dolphins (12-26) and the Rabbitohs (20-50).

The Panthers have the opposite result, winning their last three games in a row over the Storm (22-14), Bulldogs (24-10), and the Tigers (38-10). We may see Paul Alamoti back this week, along with Jack Cogger for the Panthers. The Roosters rested a lot of their stars last round, so we should see all of them return for this clash. One player we won’t see, though, is Sam Walker, who may be out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Panthers -9.5	NZ$1.75
	Panthers -9.5	NZ$TBA
	Panthers -9.5	NZ$1.75

Predicted Squads

Penrith Panthers - Dylan Edwards, Thomas Jenkins, Paul Alamoti, Casey McLean, Brian To'o, Jack Cogger, Nathan Cleary, Moses Leota, Mitch Kenny, Lindsay Smith, Isaiah Papali'i, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Freddy Lussick, Scott Sorensen, Liam Henry, Billy Phillips, Blaize Talagi & Luke Garner

Sydney Roosters - James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Billy Smith, Robert Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Hugo Savala, Daly Cherry-Evans, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins, Siua Wong, Nat Butcher, Victor Radley, Connor Watson, Spencer Leniu, Egan Butcher, Salesi Foketi, Cody Ramsay & Angus Crichton

The finals are finally here, and the BettingTop10 NZ team have all your NRL betting tips sorted for every single game. We offer so much more than just that, though! We’ve also got you covered with the best NRL betting sites, new betting sites, and betting apps.

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