NRL 2026 Grand Final – Betting Tips & Predictions

We have one final match to see out the 2026 season, with the Roosters and Knights fighting it out for the 2026 Premiership. The Roosters finished fourth throughout the regular season, and after losing to the Panthers in Finals Week 1, they rattled off back-to-back wins over the Sharks and Dolphins to make it to the Grand Final.

After finishing the regular season in seventh spot, the Knights have had their backs to the wall all throughout the finals. They beat the Rabbitohs, Warriors, and Panthers to book their spot in the big dance. We go through every key aspect of the game in our NRL betting tips, so make sure you check out our thoughts before Sunday.

The Roosters come into the Grand Final as the favourites (according to NRL betting odds), but who can discount the Knights, who have gone from the 2025 wooden spooners to 2026 Grand Finalists! The Roosters and Knights have never played each other in a Grand Final before. 

The last time the Roosters made it to the final game of the season was 2019, and the last time the Knights made it was 2001. These two sides played each other twice in 2026, and the Roosters won on both occasions. The Roosters won 38-24 back in Round 7, and then again in Round 21, but it was a much closer game, 23-22 (sealed by a 77th-minute field goal).

Both the Roosters and Knights games in the Preliminary Finals were impressive, but for different reasons. The Roosters were clinical up at Suncorp Stadium, and never really looked like letting the Dolphins in with a sniff. They did let in two late tries (in the 74th and 76th minutes), but the game was all but over by then.

Any time a team can beat the Panthers in a finals game, it’s impressive, and that’s exactly what the Knights did. Yes, Nathan Cleary was injured and came off the bench, and then suffered a horrific ankle injury only about 10 minutes into his time on the field. However, as a result of that, the Knights were down a man for the entire second half.

Let’s take a look at the potential team lists now. For the Roosters, Sam Walker made his return last time out, and he made his mark on the game, culminating in his try in the 66th minute. Connor Watson left the field in the Dolphins game with an HIA, so he may be looking for medical clearance to play.

For the Knights, all eyes will be on Phoenix Crossland and whether his tackle on Cleary (which he got sent off for) will result in a suspension. If history is anything to go by, expect a multi-week ban that could even impact Crossland’s ability to play in the upcoming Rugby League World Cup.

So, who wins this one? Well, my head says the Roosters (just), but I’ve been backing the Knights to cover the spread for the last couple of games, and they’ve come good each time. This time out, the handicap for the Knights is +6.5, which I think is generous, so that’s what I’ll be on, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Knights win outright either. 

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Knights +6.5	NZ$1.86
	Knights +6.5	NZ$TBA
	Knights +6.5	NZ$1.86

Predicted Squads

Sydney Roosters - James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Billy Smith, Robert Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Sam Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins, Salesi Foketi, Siua Wong, Victor Radley, Connor Watson, Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher, Spencer Leniu, Hugo Savala & Cody Ramsay

Newcastle Knights - Kalyn Ponga, Dom Young, Dane Gagai, Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew, Fletcher Sharpe, Sandon Smith, Tyson Frizell, Phoenix Crossland, Cody Hopwood, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua, Mat Croker, Harrison Graham, Lachlan Crouch, Pasami Saulo, Dylan Lucas, Fletcher Hunt & Thomas Cant

A lot is happening in the Grand Final, but here’s what the BettingTop10 team believe will most likely impact your bets:

• The last time the Roosters and Knights played in Round 21, it was decided by just one point. A lot of the same players will line up once again in this game.
• Phoenix Crossland could be suspended for this game after his hip-drop tackle on Nathan Cleary last time out, which would cause some reshuffling for the Knights.
• In the last five Grand Finals, the total points have been 48, 20, 50, 40, and 26. So, it’s a bit of a mixed bag as to whether this one would go over or under the total points.