October 4th, 21:30, Accor Stadium
Tip #1
I’m sticking with my trusty Knights to cover the handicap bet. It’s been working for me for the last few games, and I genuinely think the Knights are in with a chance to win this. But, just to play it safe, I’ll be taking them to cover the spread. They were impressive, beating the Panthers with a man down for the entire second half.
The likes of Kalyn Ponga and Sandon Smith are playing out of their skin, and haven’t yet let the gravity of the game get to them. Dane Gagai, who has played a whopping 240 games for the Knights across two separate stints, will play his last game for the club. So, they’ll want to send him out with a bang.
Take the Knights to cover the +6.5 spread @ NZ$1.86.
Tip #2
We all know the Grand Final is a different kind of beast when it comes to total points scored. Teams can sometimes come into this game a little nervous, and default back to defence. I’ve had a look at the last five Grand Finals; two have gone over the 42.5 mark, and three have gone under.
However, with the players that both the Roosters and Knights have on the wings, I think this could go over. In the two games these clubs played against each other in the 2026 season, we saw 45 and 62 points. The Roosters have scored the third-most points this season (the Knights scored the seventh-most)
Take over 42.5 total points @ NZ$1.86.
Tip #3
While I think both teams will be trying to feel each other out, they’ll obviously both be looking for the ascendancy in the first half. Four total tries in the first half seems very gettable to me. While these two sides only put up three tries the last time they played, the time before that, they scored a combined six first-half tries.
It was a fairly low-scoring game between the Panthers and Knights, but that’s the way the Panthers generally like to play. I think this game will be more like the Roosters and Dolphins game, where a total of 56 points was scored, with four tries in the first half.
Take over 3.5 total tries in the first half @ NZ$1.74.
