2026 Rugby League World Cup Betting Tips - Semi-Finals

Just four teams remain in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup: Australia, New Zealand, Samoa, and Tonga. Australia finished on top of Group A with three wins from three games. Meanwhile, it was Tonga that finished on top of Group B, also with three wins from three games.

All four teams haven’t played each other yet, and we all know how passionate the Samoan and Tongan fans are. So, while Australia and New Zealand may be the favourites in their respective matches, it will likely be a hard-fought battle. See what the BettingTop10 experts have to say about these two clashes in this article.

First up we have New Zealand up against Tonga at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday night. New Zealand won two of its three matches in the tournament so far, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Aussies, 22-24. They were completely ruthless last time out against Fiji, in a game that I thought Fiji was good enough to keep things close-ish.

The Kiwis won that game 78-0. I think that coach Stacey Jones would be most impressed with the nil part of that scoreline. For this clash, we won’t see Ronaldo Mulitalo, however, as he has a one-match ban from his high shot on Ronald Philitoga last time out. Kalyn Ponga is also on the extended reserves bench, but is still unlikely to play.

Looking at their opponents now, the Tongan side managed to win all three of their games so far in the World Cup. This includes wins over England (30-12), Lebanon (36-0), and, most notably, Samoa last time out (20-18). There were clearly some hard-fought wins among those games, and they have shown that they have what it takes to win gritty.

We saw a lot of their stars return for that clash with Samoa in Round 3, and it looks like there aren’t any major injuries to report, so they come into this one at seemingly full strength. On paper, it does look like the Kiwis are the better side, but the Tongans always show a lot of heart. So, I’m going to play it safe and take New Zealand for the outright win.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	New Zealand to win	NZ$1.45
	New Zealand to win	NZ$1.43
	New Zealand to win	NZ$1.45

Predicted Squads

New Zealand - Keano Kini, Jamayne Isaako, Dane Gagai, Casey McLean, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Kodi Nikorima, Jahrome Hughes, James Fisher-Harris, Jeremy Marshall-King, Moses Leota, Isaiah Papali'i, Briton Nikora, Joseph Tapine, Te Maire Martin, Naufahu Whyte, Erin Clark, Xavier Willison, Scott Sorenson & Leo Thompson

Tonga - Lehi Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Tolu Koula, Robert Toia, Jojo Fifita, Tu'i Lolohea, Isaiya Katoa, Addin Fonua-Blake, Salesi Foketi, Jason Taumalolo, Haumole Olakau’atu, Siua Wong, Tyson Frizell, Soni Luke, Stefano Utoikamanu, Demitric Vaimauga, Taniela Paseka, Leka Halasima & Latu Fainu

Australia will face off against Samoa for the last spot in the Final to be played next Sunday. The host nation did get off to a somewhat shaky start, just winning against New Zealand in Round 1 (24-22). Then, in Round 2, it was another somewhat close call with Fiji (especially in the first half), but they managed to win 36-22.

In the third and final round, they proved far too good for the Cook Islands, winning 66-6. Most notably, Reece Walsh gets in at fullback over James Tedesco, who is listed on the bench. Cameron Murray was a late scratching due to an illness last time out, but we should expect him back for this one. 

Samoa won their first two games of the tournament, and by big margins as well. They beat France 78-4 in Round 1 and then backed up that performance with a 64-6 thrashing of Papua New Guinea. In Round 3, they went down in a thriller to Tonga, 18-20. While there was a lot of heart in that game, this will certainly be their toughest assignment so far.

Things don’t get any easier for the Samoan side either, with Chanel Harris-Tevita not available for this clash due to a hamstring injury. In better news, Junior Paulo has been cleared to play after escaping with a warning for his high shot on Dallin Watene-Zelezniak last time out. The Aussies may be favourites for this one, but I think Samoa can give them a run for their money.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Samoa +7.5	NZ$1.86
	Samoa +7.5	NZ$1.90
	Samoa +7.5	NZ$1.86

Predicted Squads

Australia - Reece Walsh, Jack Bostock, Kotoni Staggs, Bradman Best, Tom Trbojevic, Cameron Munster, Tom Dearden, Pat Carrigan, Harry Grant, Tino Fa'asaumaleaui, Jacob Preston, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Ethan Strange, Keaon Koloamatangi, Cameron Murray, Reuben Cotter, Latrell Mitchell & James Tedesco

Samoa - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To’o, Izack Tago, Stephen Crichton, Sua Fa’alogo, Ronald Volkman, Jarome Luai, Francis Molo, Benaiah Ioelu, Junior Paulo, Connelly Lemuelu, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua, Jazz Tevaga, Spencer Leniu, Shawn Blore, Ata Mariota, Clayton Faulalo & Deine Mariner

A spot in the Rugby League World Cup Final is on the line here. So, let’s see what some of the biggest betting influences are for these two Semi-Final clashes:

1. New Zealand will be brimming with confidence after knocking down Fiji 78-0 last time out. No one believes that Tonga are pushovers, though. So, this will be a hard-fought battle, but I have to give the edge to the Kiwis.
2. Points have been for the taking all throughout the World Cup, and I don’t think that’ll stop in the Semi-Finals. The line is currently sitting at 40.5, which I think is very reasonable.
3. Australia may have won all three games so far in this tournament, but they haven’t really done so in a convincing fashion. The Samoans are good enough to keep this one close and bounce back from their two-point loss last time out.

Multi of the Week

Looking to place a rugby league multi? We’ve got you covered! Here’s our top three-leg multi for Semi-Final action, with the odds taken from one of the best legal betting sites in New Zealand, Betista: