Rugby Union Betting Tips For Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 2026 - All Blacks vs Springboks 3rd Test

The series is all levelled up at 1-1 after the Springboks got the better of the All Blacks in the second game, 33-26. We head to FNB Stadium in Johannesburg for the third Test, and before kick-off, make sure you take a look at all our rugby union betting tips for this clash.

After keeping the Springboks try-less in the second half (and scoring two of their own), the All Blacks just fell short at the post, going down in the second Test 26-33. This means we’re all squared up at one Test apiece, and as this series is an even four games, winning the third is critical. Before all the thrills and spills of the third Test, the BettingTop10 team go through the team form, tactics, and more for you.

Odds thanks to Betista (accurate at the time of publication).

All Blacks

The All Blacks will be disappointed they couldn’t come away with the win in the second Test, especially considering they came home with a wet sail (and kept the Springboks try-less in the second half). They can take confidence that they were a bit unlucky with the whistle, and they still kept things close.

The All Blacks will be looking to get back to the tactics that helped them win the first game. Mainly focusing on their attacking speed and their ability to move the ball into some clear air. If they can clean up their discipline (they conceded eight penalties in total, with four penalty goals from Cheslin Kolbe).

The All Blacks captain, Ardie Savea, is the clear player to watch as he leads his team through this critical match. Savea is an important piece of the puzzle in the breakdown, and has the ability to create something out of seemingly nothing when there’s broken play.

Springboks

I think everyone expected the Springboks to bounce back in the second Test, and that’s exactly what they did. They managed three tries in the first half; however, Rassie Erasmus will be slightly concerned they weren’t able to score any tries in the second half.

Erasmus has made a few changes for the third Test as well. Most importantly, we see Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu returning at fly-half, Cheslin Kolbe moving to fullback, and Kurt-Lee Arendse returning on the wing.

Expect the Springboks to remain as physical as possible for this clash. Their forwards are their biggest weapon, and they have the ability to put the All Blacks under serious pressure. The home side will continue to use their kicking game, which prevents the All Blacks from playing at their desired tempo.

As we already know in this series, it’s all levelled up at one win apiece. However, in the last five meetings, the Springboks lead 3-2, taking a 43-10 win in September 2025 and an 18-12 win in September 2024. This game shapes up to be a key one, as a two-game lead in a four-game series is critical.

The All Blacks have finished playing local South African franchises now. In total, they played four local franchises and won all four games (three were played before the first game against the Springboks, while the last game was played between the first and second game against the Springboks). Before this series, the Springboks played Argentina on the road, and they won that game 17-10.

The most vital trends that you should be aware of leading into this match: 

• The Springboks have re-taken the lead in the world rugby rankings (men’s) with 93.39 points, compared to 92.85 points for the All Blacks.
• In the last five Tests between these two sides, three of the games have been decided by seven points or less.
• The All Blacks have only played at FNB Stadium twice, but they managed to win on both occasions (29-22 in 2010 and 32-16 in 2012).

As we’ve seen throughout this series so far, there isn’t much to split these two sides. The All Blacks did get the jump on the Springboks in the first game, but the home side fired back as expected in the second. Still, the All Blacks managed to keep things close in the second Test, covering the +7.5 spread.

While the All Blacks have a 100% strike rate at FNB Stadium (two from two), they haven’t played here since 2012. The All Blacks have played well all series and did have their chances in the second game. I’ve been taking the All Blacks to cover the spread in both games, and it’s paid off, so I’m sticking with what I know!

Take the All Blacks to cover the +7.5 spread @ $1.83.

We’ve seen this story before. In the first two games, the All Blacks were the heavy underdogs, and on both occasions they showed they’re no pushover. They won the first Test and had their chances in the second Test. 

These are two very good teams, and it’s difficult to see one side completely running away with things. Who will take out this all-important third Test? Only time will tell! But while you’re waiting, don’t forget to take a look at some betting bonuses for this game, so you can stretch your dollar further.