Champions League: Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Atletico Madrid and Arsenal meet at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Thursday morning New Zealand time in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final.

Arsenal thumped Atletico 4-0 in the league phase back in October, but that was a different world. The Gunners have won just two of their last five across all competitions, and fresh doubts over Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze complicate things further.

In this Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal preview, I’m looking at whether Arsenal can protect an advantage for the second leg at the Emirates. For those after football betting tips, I’ve got a goals market play I like for this one.

Atletico Madrid

I won’t sugarcoat Atletico’s form. They’re one win from five across all competitions, with a Copa del Rey final lost on penalties to Real Sociedad and La Liga defeats at Sevilla and Elche dragging confidence down. Fourth in the table with 60 points, and it flatters them right now.

Champions League knockout football under Simeone is a different proposition, though. Atletico knocked out Barcelona in the quarters despite losing the second leg 1-2 at home, advancing 3-2 on aggregate after a first-leg win at Camp Nou. Alexander Sorloth’s return against Athletic Club was well timed too - two goals to confirm his fitness before the biggest game of their season.

Julian Alvarez has 19 goals across all competitions. I expect Simeone to go with a back five and suffocate this contest for as long as possible.

Team News: Barrios is a major doubt after aggravating a hamstring problem against Athletic. Lookman hasn’t recovered from a Copa del Rey final knock. Gimenez is still out. Sorloth and Hancko are expected to be fit.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko, Ruggeri; Llorente, Koke; G. Simeone, Alvarez, Sorloth.

Arsenal

Arsenal went eight from eight in the Champions League league phase and conceded just five goals across 12 European games. Their continental form has been the best in the competition by some distance.

Domestically, they’re wobbling. Defeats to Bournemouth and Manchester City have eaten into their Premier League lead, with City now just three points off and holding a game in hand. Saturday’s 1-0 win over Newcastle came at a cost - Havertz left the pitch after 34 minutes with a groin issue, and Eze followed him off early in the second half with an ankle problem.

Bukayo Saka’s return to the bench against Newcastle is the one positive. He’s been out for a month with an Achilles issue, and even 20 or 30 minutes in Madrid would change Arsenal’s attacking dynamic. Without him, they’ve lacked directness in the final third.

Team News: Havertz is a doubt with a groin niggle. Eze went off with an ankle problem against Newcastle. Saka returned to the bench and could feature. Timber and Calafiori are nearing returns. Merino is a long-term absentee.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

• Arsenal have won all eight Champions League league phase games this season, conceding five goals.
• Atletico beat Athletic Club 3-2 on Saturday in their first La Liga win since March 14.
• The reverse fixture in October ended 4-0 to Arsenal at the Emirates, with Viktor Gyokeres scoring twice.
• Arsenal have won two of their last five across all competitions, with both victories coming by a single goal.
• Atletico have conceded in nine of their last 10 across La Liga and the Champions League.

Arsenal are the better team on paper, but they don’t look like the same side that demolished Atletico in October. Havertz and Eze being doubts worries me, because Viktor Gyokeres has struggled without quality service around him.

I can’t stop thinking about the 2018 Europa League semi-final. Arsenal went to the Metropolitano that night as the better footballing side, and Simeone strangled the tie out of them. Arteta is a more pragmatic coach than Wenger was, but the dynamic feels similar - an English club with superior talent walking into an environment designed to unsettle them.

I’m leaning towards a low-scoring draw. Simeone will set up to frustrate, and Arsenal won’t want to overcommit knowing the second leg is at the Emirates. If you’ve been browsing NZ betting sites ahead of this one, the draw at $3.30 caught my eye. I think 1-1 or 0-0 is the most likely outcome.

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.75

Simeone lives for these nights. Arteta has been increasingly pragmatic in big European fixtures this season too. Arsenal’s five goals conceded in 12 UCL games paint the picture clearly enough.

Atletico’s recent La Liga games have been open, but I don’t see that pattern continuing with this much on the line. Under 2.5 at $1.75 on any of the best betting apps is where I’m putting my money.