Australia vs Brazil Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Tuesday night’s rematch at Suncorp Stadium comes with more edge than your average friendly.

Australia were seconds away from only their second ever win over Brazil in Townsville on Friday, before Rayan headed in a 95th-minute equaliser to snatch a 1-1 draw. Now the two sides go again in Brisbane for the second international friendly of the series, with an 11pm NZT kickoff on Tuesday.

I’ve been through both camps for this Australia vs Brazil preview, and I’ve got a half-time/full-time angle north of $4 that I reckon the market has undersold.

If you’re hunting football sports betting angles from the international window, read on.

Australia

I thought the Socceroos were the better side for most of the first half on Friday.

They pressed high and forced Brazil into hurried passes for long spells. Brazil still finished with 65% of the ball and 16 shots, but a fair chunk of that came after half-time once Carlo Ancelotti started using his bench.

Nestory Irankunda is the obvious talking point. The 20-year-old’s free kick into the top corner on 68 minutes was only the second goal Australia have ever scored against Brazil, and he looked comfortable against some of the best players in the world.

Lucas Herrington is a Brisbane local, so Suncorp will feel like home for the Hull City defender. Alongside Alessandro Circati and Harry Souttar, he was part of a back three that held firm until the last kick.

For me, the worry is up front. One goal from a set piece is a thin return.

Team News: Toure has a shoulder injury, while Robertson is reportedly being rested by Cardiff. Jordy Bos and Burgess are long-term absentees, while Volpato has a hamstring strain.

Predicted Lineup: Beach; Circati, Souttar, Herrington; Italiano, Irvine, O’Neill, Behich; McGree, Metcalfe; Irankunda.

Brazil

Brazil were flat in Townsville, and I don’t buy their complaints about the pitch.

They had enough looks to win it. Raphinha dragged a shot wide and Estevao Willian skied one from six yards. Estevao also had a first-half goal ruled out after Bruno Guimaraes needlessly grabbed Souttar by the knee.

This is a very different Brazil to the one Norway knocked out in the World Cup last 16. Fewer than 10 players from that squad made this trip. Alisson was left out, and Neymar has since ended his international career.

Rayan is the one I’m watching. The Bournemouth winger changed the game off the bench and should start in place of Estevao. I’d be checking his scorer price on the best legal sports betting sites before kickoff.

Team News: Joao Pedro and Wesley withdrew injured, with Martinelli and Vanderson called up in their place.

Predicted Lineup: Souza; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Guimaraes, Andrey Santos; Rayan, Raphinha, Vinicius Junior; Endrick.

• Australia have won one of their last seven matches.
• All seven of those games produced fewer than three goals.
• Brazil have conceded in each of their last six friendlies.
• Brazil won 4-0 in Melbourne when these sides met in June 2017.
• Friday’s game was goalless at half-time.

I’m backing Brazil, but it’ll be another dogfight.

Ancelotti has promised changes, and I reckon a side with a point to prove will be sharper than the one that stumbled around Townsville. Rayan starting gives them a direct outlet they didn’t have until the 76th minute on Friday.

Obviously, Australia won’t roll over.

Their press rattled Brazil for most of the opening 45, and a big Brisbane crowd will be right with them early. I can see the Socceroos frustrating Brazil for a while.

Where I’m less sure of Australia is the last half-hour. Both coaches will ring the changes after the break, and Brazil’s bench is on another level to what Popovic can call on.

It’s not a lock. Australia held out until the 95th minute last time, and another draw wouldn’t shock me. But I’m going 2-1 to Brazil, with both teams scoring given the visitors have leaked in six straight friendlies. For me, the stronger angle is in the timing of the goals.

Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Brazil @ $4.50

I see the same pattern as Friday unfolding here.

Australia come out swinging at home, and Brazil’s reshuffled lineup looked lost for long stretches of the first half in Townsville. A level scoreline at the break feels more likely to me than the market suggests.

After half-time, with fresh legs coming on and Brazil’s wide players running at tiring wing-backs, I expect the favourites to take over. Australia have scored more than once in just one of their last seven matches, so I can’t see them pulling clear if Brazil do go ahead.

At $4.50, I’m happy to take the risk, and it’s worth checking what betting promotions are around before kickoff.