China vs New Zealand Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

New Zealand go again in Chongqing on Monday, this time against the host country in the second of their two international friendlies in China.

It’s a 12.35am NZT kickoff at Longxing Football Stadium, after both sides had a run-out on Thursday. China beat the Maldives 3-0 at the same ground, while New Zealand let a lead slip twice in a 2-2 draw with Palestine elsewhere in Chongqing.

In this China vs New Zealand preview, I go through both squads and explain why I’m happy to take a price north of $3 on a result plenty of punters will ignore.

If you’re after football betting tips with the Kirin Cup around the corner, read on.

China

China were average for 45 minutes on Thursday.

They couldn’t break the Maldives down until after half-time, when Wang Ziming scored three times in 13 minutes. It was the first hat-trick by a Chinese international in almost seven years.

I wouldn’t get carried away with this result though. China’s year had been patchy before that. They beat Curacao 2-0 in March and lost 2-0 to Cameroon four days later. June brought a 2-1 win in Singapore and a 0-0 draw with Thailand.

What I do like is how stingy they’ve been. Only Cameroon have scored more than once against them in 2026, and China are favourites on most of the new betting sites I’ve looked at off the back of that.

This is also a stripped-back squad, with 11 uncapped players named. Wei Shihao is the obvious reference point in attack.

Team News: Several regulars are away with the under-23s at the Asian Games in Japan. Wu Lei has retired.

Predicted Lineup: Yan Junling; Gao Zhunyi, Jiang Guangtai, Han Pengfei, Liu Yang; Yang Mingyang, Wang Shangyuan, Huang Jiahui, Xie Wenneng; Wang Ziming, Wei Shihao.

New Zealand

Thursday was a scrappy start to the new cycle for our boys.

Ben Waine scored after five minutes and Jesse Randall restored the lead on 35, but Palestine equalised both times before half-time. With 10 substitutes used and no live broadcast, I’m treating it as a glorified training run.

That said, conceding twice to the world No 95 bugs me. It’s a new-look defence after the World Cup, and it’s still being pieced together.

Going forward, I’m keen on Eli Just. He scored three times at the World Cup and only came off the bench on Thursday, so I expect him to start.

Ben Old should come in too. He arrived late from Saint-Etienne and didn’t feature against Palestine, so he’s the freshest body in camp.

Team News: Wood and Surman only link up with the squad for the Kirin Cup in Japan.

Predicted Lineup: Paulsen; Elliot, Bindon, Tuiloma, Wilkins; Stamenic, Rufer; Old, Just, McCowatt; Waine.

• China have lost only one of their five games in 2026.
• China have kept three clean sheets in those five games.
• New Zealand have conceded 10 goals across their last three matches.
• New Zealand are unbeaten in their last two meetings with China.
• China are ranked 91st in the world, five places below New Zealand.

I’m calling a draw.

It’s a coin flip for me, and prices suggest football betting sites feel the same way. Both teams will rotate again, and with up to 11 substitutions allowed in friendlies, the second half could look nothing like the first. In my experience, that kills any rhythm these games might have had.

China’s scoring record points the same way. They’ve managed more than two goals once in five outings this year, and that came against the Maldives.

New Zealand are harder to read. I think Just and Old can hurt a China back four that hasn’t faced much pace this year, but that’s a hunch more than anything I can back up with numbers.

And I’m not convinced about their own defence either. Palestine scored from a corner and then again before the break, and China will fancy their chances from set pieces too.

I’d say 1-1. Under 2.5 goals looks likely as well, but at around $1.70 there isn’t enough in the price for me.

Draw @ $3.20

When these two met in Auckland in March 2023, it finished 0-0 at Mount Smart Stadium.

Neither team has much riding on the result. China are preparing for January’s Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia, while New Zealand fly to Japan straight after this for a Kirin Cup date with Panama on Thursday.

New Zealand have already drawn once this window, and I don’t see either side chasing a winner hard once the changes start in the second half.

At $3.20, the draw is the bet I’m putting on through my NZ betting apps this week.