England vs Spain Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Spain’s first game as world champions is at Wembley on Sunday morning New Zealand time, with England waiting for them in the opening round of UEFA Nations League Group A3.

Kick-off is 7:45am NZT. Neither side has played since July, when England beat France 6-4 for third place at the World Cup and Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final.

For this England vs Spain preview, I’ve dug into both squads. Spoiler alert: England’s has taken a battering since Thomas Tuchel named it on 18 September. There’s a result-and-goals double around $5.00 further down for anyone after football betting tips with a decent return.

England

I haven’t seen an England attack this dangerous in years.

Jude Bellingham scored seven goals at the World Cup, more than any England player has managed at a single edition, and Bukayo Saka signed off with a hat-trick against France. Harry Kane is coming off 73 goals last season as well.

Their defending is another matter though. England conceded 10 goals across their last five matches, four of them in one second half against France after going in 4-0 up.

They also let a 1-0 lead slip against Argentina in the semi-final.

The midfield worries me most this week. Elliot Anderson should start, and I expect Myles Lewis-Skelly to partner him. I like Lewis-Skelly in there, but Pedri won’t give him a second to settle.

If you want to bet on football at bigger prices, England to score is where I’d start. They’ve found the net in all of their last five, and Wembley is sold out.

Team News: Rice, Livramento, Mainoo, Palmer and Rashford have all withdrawn injured. Garner and Gibbs-White are the replacements.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly; Anderson, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.

Spain

One goal conceded in eight World Cup matches for Spain.

Charles De Ketelaere’s header for Belgium in the quarter-final was the only thing to get past Unai Simon all tournament. Pau Cubarsi started every game at centre-back, and at 19 he barely put a foot wrong.

Yes, the final was a slog. Spain had 20 shots to Argentina’s two and still needed Ferran Torres off the bench in the 106th minute.

Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are both in the squad. Dean Huijsen is back too after missing out on the World Cup.

My only doubt is sharpness. This is their first outing since the final, and I’m not sure every one of them is fully up to speed yet.

Team News: Joan Garcia is out with a minor knee problem. Llorente has retired from international football, and Gavi wasn’t selected.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Zubimendi, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Williams.

• England’s last five matches have all gone over 2.5 goals.
• Both teams scored in four of the last five England vs Spain meetings.
• England haven’t beaten Spain at Wembley since November 2011.
• Spain won 2-1 on their last visit to Wembley in 2018.
• England’s last win over Spain was 3-2 in Seville in 2018.

I’m picking Spain, but I’m not thrilled about it given the rusty context of this match.

Wembley will be pumping and England have the players to cause plenty of damage on attack. But losing five players in one afternoon is a blow, and the gap I’d point to first is in midfield. Spain will have long spells on the ball, and I don’t trust this back four to hold out for 90 minutes under that sort of pressure.

Euro 2024 isn’t that long ago either. Mikel Oyarzabal’s late winner in Berlin came against a lot of the same faces.

But I can’t see a Spain clean sheet here.

Bellingham and Saka are too sharp right now, and Spain’s full-backs push high enough to leave space down the flanks. England will get chances on the break.

My gut says 2-1 Spain. A draw wouldn’t shock me, so if you’re more cautious than I am, Spain draw no bet is a reasonable fallback.

Spain to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $5.00

England at home have too much firepower to go 90 minutes without a goal. Spain scored in seven of their eight World Cup matches, and the one blank was a 0-0 against Cape Verde in their opener.

Their 2-1 win over Belgium in the quarter-final is the closest thing to what I expect here.

There’s a neat pattern in this fixture as well. Spain have scored exactly twice in each of their last five meetings with England, going back to a 2-0 friendly win in Alicante in November 2015, and I don’t see a depleted England midfield stopping that here.

At $5.00 with most New Zealand betting apps, I’m in.