Portugal vs Wales Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Wales have not won a football match since November.

They begin their Nations League campaign against the holders at the Estadio Jose Alvalade on Friday morning New Zealand time, with Denmark and Norway also in Group A4. Getting promoted was the easy part.

In this Portugal vs Wales preview I go through the form of both sides and how a patched-up Welsh back line might cope in Lisbon. I’ve ended up in the clean sheet markets rather than on the outright.

There’s a price near $2.20 in there for anyone hunting free bets this week.

Portugal

Jorge Jesus has walked into a very good job.

He has called up 25 players and 21 of them were at the World Cup, and that tournament was better than the exit suggests. Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo and put five past Uzbekistan. A 0-0 with Colombia left them second in Group K, and Croatia were then beaten 2-1 in the last 32.

Spain won the round of 16 tie 1-0 through a Mikel Merino goal in the first minute of stoppage time. Roberto Martinez announced his departure in the press conference straight afterwards.

My worry with Portugal is rust. That’s 11 weeks without a fixture, and new ideas to absorb in four days on a training pitch. Their quality should cover it, and I’d expect Vitinha and Joao Neves to have far too much of the ball for Wales.

Cristiano Ronaldo is still here at 41. He has 146 international goals and no retirement date.

Team News: Portugal have no injury concerns. Palhinha, Tavares, Fabio Silva and Soares are the additions to the World Cup group, while Jose Sa, Semedo, Matheus Nunes, Samu Costa and Guedes drop out.

Predicted Lineup: Diogo Costa; Dalot, Dias, Inacio, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes; Bernardo Silva, Ronaldo, Leao.

Wales

I rate this Welsh group higher than their recent results, but the goals have dried up badly.

Their last four matches have each produced exactly one Welsh goal. A 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup play-off semi-final went to penalties and ended their tournament, then came a 1-1 against Northern Ireland in March. June brought another 1-1 at home to Ghana and a 2-1 defeat in Bucharest.

Wales went through their League B campaign unbeaten to come back up, so the step up in class is the open question. An away double header against Portugal and Denmark is a rough introduction.

Losing both first-choice centre-backs hurts more than the names suggest. Their back three will spend the night defending a deep line against Rafael Leao and Ronaldo, and Wales haven’t had a clean sheet in their last five.

Harry Wilson and Jordan James are back after missing the June friendlies, which helps a midfield short of ideas in Bucharest.

Team News: Rodon and Lawlor are both out injured. Ashford has a first senior call-up and Lienou returns to the group.

Predicted Lineup: Darlow; Mepham, Davies, Cabango; Roberts, Ampadu, Sheehan, Williams; Wilson, Johnson; Moore.

• Portugal are the defending Nations League champions.
• Wales are back in League A for the first time since 2022.
• Wales have won just one of four meetings with Portugal, a friendly in 1951.
• Wales lost the Euro 2016 semi-final 2-0 in Lyon.
• Portugal managed two clean sheets in five World Cup matches.

I’m on Portugal, and I want the clean sheet too.

Wales will defend deep and hope to nick one on the counter. It’s a sensible plan away in Lisbon, though it’s also the plan that has produced four straight matches with a single goal in them.

Portugal’s attack does worry me a little. Jesus has four days to decide whether Ronaldo starts or comes off the bench, and a side that hasn’t played together under this coach can look disjointed for an hour. A frustrating first half wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Even so, Wales haven’t come up against an attack like this one in a long time, and a makeshift Welsh central defence against Leao cutting inside is the mismatch I trust most here. My head goes to 2-0 or 3-0 Portugal.

Portugal at around $1.28 is no use to anyone. I’d rather narrow the outcomes and take a bigger number, and the best legal sports betting sites in New Zealand have that around $2.20.

Portugal to Win to Nil @ $2.20

Three of those four one-goal Welsh performances came at the Cardiff City Stadium. Their only trip away from home this year was to Bucharest, and they lost it.

Portugal conceded three times in five World Cup matches against sharper opposition than this, and Wales arrive intending to camp in their own half. That cuts the chances at both ends and points at a low-scoring home win rather than a rout.

At $2.20 I’m happy, and the best live sports betting sites are worth a look if Portugal start slowly and the price drifts.