Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Palestine and New Zealand have never played each other.

That changes on Thursday night New Zealand time at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing, where the All Whites open a two-game stop in China. Palestine are the nominal hosts, though nobody in the ground will treat it that way.

In this Palestine vs New Zealand preview I go through form, selection and what both squads look like. Neither side has played since June, which is worth remembering.

My pick pairs the result with a goals line at better than $2.70, so anyone hunting new betting sites with decent friendly coverage should shop around early.

Palestine

Palestine are difficult to score against and, right now, almost impossible to watch at the other end. Four of their last six have finished level and three of those were goalless. Two friendlies against Kyrgyzstan in June produced nothing across 180 minutes.

I still rate their back line. Michel Termanini has been steady in the middle and Musab Al-Battat reads the game well at full back. Depth in the centre is the problem. Amid Mahajna is a midfielder by preference and may have to drop back.

Oday Dabbagh is the player who should worry New Zealand. Seventeen international goals is more than anyone else in this squad, and Tamer Seyam on 15 gives them a second forward who has done it at this level.

Their Arab Cup campaign last December is their best recent work. Qatar were beaten 1-0, and points against Tunisia and Syria took them top of the group before Saudi Arabia ended it in the quarter-finals. No goals at all in the two matches since.

Team News: Abou Ali is a long-term absentee after knee surgery. Saleh withdrew with a broken foot. Dakhil and Shhade are in the squad for the first time.

Predicted Lineup: Hamada; Al-Battat, Termanini, Mahajna, Taha; Kharoub, Rashid; Kaied, Manzur, Qunbar; Dabbagh.

New Zealand

For me the squad is more interesting than the result here. Chris Wood and Finn Surman have been held back for the Kirin Cup to manage their playing loads, so New Zealand arrive without their captain and one of their World Cup scorers. Kosta Barbarouses, Michael Boxall and Joe Bell were left out as well, and Tommy Smith has switched to coaching.

Their World Cup told two stories. Elijah Just scored twice in a 2-2 draw with Iran, and Surman headed them ahead of Egypt before a 3-1 defeat. Then Belgium won 5-1 in Vancouver and that was that.

Fifteen conceded across their last five games is what stops me loading up on them.

Three uncapped players have come in, including Stipe Ukich, the 19-year-old at NK Istra in Croatia. Moses Dyer was added late after four goals in three games in Cambodia, eight years since his last cap. Plenty of them will get minutes.

Team News: Crocombe, Payne, Cacace, de Vries, Garbett and Singh are not in the squad. Gray, Stanger and Ukich are uncapped. Dyer joined up late.

Predicted Lineup: Paulsen; Ingham, Bindon, Pijnaker, Sutton; Rufer, Stamenic; Just, McCowatt, Old; Waine.

• This is the first ever meeting between the two nations.
• Palestine have not won in five matches.
• Under 2.5 goals came in three of Palestine’s last four outings.
• New Zealand have not won a game since March.
• Palestine are ranked 95th in the world, New Zealand 86th.

I’m taking New Zealand, without a huge amount of conviction.

The squad gap is real even without Wood. Swansea City have Marko Stamenic in their midfield and Eli Just further forward, while Ben Old is at Saint-Etienne. Palestine pull theirs from everywhere, from Nuremberg and Bosnia to the Gulf and their own domestic league.

What gives me pause is the travel and the unfamiliarity. Half of this side has never played together, and friendlies in week one of a camp are scrappy more often than not.

So I like New Zealand. Just not by much, and not in a high-scoring game. Palestine defend deep and they are well drilled at it, and I can’t see a patched-together All Whites attack carving them open three or four times.

If you’re after value on sports betting apps this week, the goals lines are where friendly pricing is usually softest.

New Zealand to Win and Under 3.5 Goals @ $2.90

Four of New Zealand’s last five went past 3.5 goals, and that is the obvious argument against this one. Look at the opposition, though. Belgium, Egypt, Iran and a Haiti side that beat them 4-0. Palestine will not come at them like that.

Palestine have conceded four goals in their last six matches. They dropped deep against Kyrgyzstan twice and gave up nothing. New Zealand should have enough to break that down once, maybe twice, and I doubt they need more.

A 1-0 or a 2-1 is where my head is. At $2.90 on the best betting sites NZ punters use, I’ll take it.