Serbia vs Greece Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Serbia and Greece open their UEFA Nations League campaigns at the Rajko Mitic Stadium on Friday morning New Zealand time, in a Group A2 that also contains Germany and the Netherlands.

Neither of these two were at the World Cup. Both finished third in their qualifying groups and both have spent the months since in forgettable friendlies. Friday is their first competitive fixture in 10 months.

In this Serbia vs Greece preview I go through form, team news and why the goals markets interest me more than the result.

I’ve got a combination angle at better than $3.50 for anyone hunting football betting sites with decent Nations League coverage.

Serbia

Serbia have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches. Eight of those came across two summer friendlies, a 3-0 defeat to Cape Verde in Lisbon and a 5-1 mauling in Mexico, which is not the preparation you want before Germany and the Netherlands.

I still fancy them here, though. Those two results came at the end of May and start of June with nothing riding on them, against opponents about to play in a World Cup. Belgrade in September is a different proposition.

Dusan Vlahovic leads their attack, and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Lazar Samardzic give their midfield some weight. Dusan Tadic is back at 37 after two years away, which I read as a sign they’re short of creators.

Serbia haven’t played at the Rajko Mitic since England turned up last September and won 5-0. Their two home wins since then, 2-1 over Latvia in November and 2-1 over Saudi Arabia in March, both came at smaller grounds outside the capital.

Team News: Aleksandar Mitrovic and Nikola Milenkovic are both out injured, as is goalkeeper Predrag Rajkovic. Stefan Dzodic and the Vojvodina pair of Petar Sukacev and Lazar Nikolic could all win a first cap.

Predicted Lineup: Vanja Milinkovic-Savic; Nedeljkovic, Pavlovic, Babic, Terzic; Gudelj, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic; Zivkovic, Tadic, Kostic; Vlahovic.

Greece

Their first campaign in League A, and they’ve been handed about the worst group available.

Greece have scored two goals in their last five matches. Both arrived in the same game, a 2-2 friendly draw away to Sweden in June. Vangelis Pavlidis and Fotis Ioannidis are good finishers at club level, yet none of it has translated internationally since they beat Scotland last November.

Defensively they’re fine. Four conceded across those five matches with two clean sheets, and in Konstantinos Mavropanos and Konstantinos Koulierakis they’ve got a centre-back pairing that won’t be overrun.

What I don’t know is how a group this raw at this level copes with a hostile Belgrade crowd. Nothing in their record holds the answer.

Team News: Konstantinos Tsimikas has been called up. Only six midfielders were named in the squad, so cover in the middle third is thin. No fresh injury concerns have been reported.

Predicted Lineup: Tzolakis; Vagiannidis, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas; Zafeiris, Mouzakitis; Tzolis, Karetsas, Masouras; Pavlidis.

• Serbia and Greece have met twice, both friendlies, most recently in 2014.
• Neither side has played a competitive fixture since November 2025.
• Greece have failed to score in four of their last five.
• Four of Greece’s last five have finished under 2.5 goals.
• Serbia have conceded three or more in three of their last five.
• Greece won promotion to League A by beating Scotland 3-0 away in the 2025 play-offs.

I’m taking Serbia, and I’m taking a low score alongside it.

Home advantage counts for plenty here, and Serbia have more quality in the final third. Vlahovic on his own is a bigger threat than anything the visitors can put out.

My worry is their defence. Pavlovic is excellent but Milenkovic’s absence leaves Srdjan Babic next to him, and Serbia have looked vulnerable at the back all year. If Greece do find a way through, this becomes a scrappy 1-1 that nobody enjoys.

Even so, two goals in five games is a hard pattern to break, and I can’t talk myself into Greece doing it away from home on their League A debut. New betting sites have Serbia around $1.95, which feels fair without being generous.

I’ll go 1-0 Serbia and expect a fairly dull watch.

Serbia to Win and Under 2.5 Goals @ $3.70

Both halves of this have evidence on their side. Greece have gone under 2.5 goals in four of their last five, and in all four of those they failed to score. Serbia’s heavy defeats came away from home against sides sharpening up for a tournament, which is nothing like a Greek attack that has managed two goals since March.

Add in 10 months without competitive football for both, and I’d expect Serbia to grind this out rather than blow Greece away. A 1-0 or 2-0 covers it.

At $3.70 it’s a price I’m comfortable with on the best betting sites NZ has to offer.