Norway vs Denmark Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Norway and Denmark open their UEFA Nations League campaigns at Ullevaal Stadion on Friday morning New Zealand time.

Two neighbours, two very different summers. Norway got to a World Cup quarter-final and put Brazil out on the way. Denmark never got on the plane. Both are in a League A group that also contains Portugal and Wales, with Euro 2028 seeding and play-off access riding on where they finish.

In this Norway vs Denmark preview I go through form, team news and why the goals markets interest me more than the result here. There’s an angle paying close to $3.00 for anyone after football tips with a bit of value attached.

Norway

Norway are the best version of themselves in a generation.

Their summer was the story of the World Cup. They put four past Iraq and beat Senegal 3-2, then Ivory Coast and Brazil both went down 2-1 in the knockouts before England edged them in extra time in Miami. Erling Haaland finished with seven goals.

At Ullevaal they’ve been savage. Four home qualifiers last year produced 23 goals scored and two conceded, including an 11-1 against Moldova and a 3-0 over Italy.

Defensively it’s a different story. Norway were breached in all six of their World Cup games and have let in 10 across their last five, so I wouldn’t be treating them as a clean sheet proposition.

Martin Odegaard dictates from midfield with Sander Berge doing the unglamorous stuff around him, and I’d expect Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb either side of Haaland.

Team News: Sorloth is out injured. Bjorkan has taken a break from international football. Thorsby and Falchener weren’t selected.

Predicted Lineup: Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Wolfe; Berge, Berg, Odegaard; Nusa, Haaland, Bobb.

Denmark

Denmark turn up mid-rebuild and with barely any competitive football in them.

Missing the World Cup hurt. They finished second in their qualifying group, beat North Macedonia 4-0 in the playoff semi-final, then drew 2-2 with Czechia in the final and lost the shootout. June brought two friendlies, a 0-0 with DR Congo and a match against Ukraine that was abandoned with Denmark 2-1 ahead after Christian Eriksen collapsed in Odense.

Rasmus Hojlund leads their attack and Mikkel Damsgaard inherits the creative job. Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg give them plenty of steel in the middle. Four players in this squad are yet to be capped, so there’s a bit of experimenting going on.

My concern for them is their back four. Joachim Andersen looks likely to have an unfamiliar partner next to him at short notice, against a striker who scored seven times at a World Cup.

Team News: Christensen is expected to withdraw with a thigh problem. Bah and Froholdt are both doubts. Osula is unavailable, and Eriksen hasn’t played since that night in Odense.

Predicted Lineup: Hermansen; Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Maehle; Hojbjerg, Hjulmand, Damsgaard; Isaksen, Hojlund, Dorgu.

• Norway haven’t beaten Denmark since February 2000.
• Denmark have won four of their six meetings since 2002.
• Denmark won the most recent meeting 3-1 in June 2024.
• Both teams scored in all six of Norway’s World Cup games.
• Denmark have scored in four of their last five.
• Norway have scored nine and conceded 10 across their last five.

I’m on Norway here, and I reckon there will be goals too.

Home form is my reasoning. Oslo has been a horrible trip for visiting sides since the middle of last year, and Denmark are a centre-half light at the worst possible moment.

What nags at me is the head-to-head. Denmark simply do not lose to these opponents, and the visitors defend deep and counter well enough to cause the hosts real problems. If Haaland has a quiet night, 1-1 is very much on.

I’m still taking the hosts. Norway have far more quality in the final third, and a crowd that hasn’t seen them since the World Cup will be loud from the first whistle. Betting bonuses soften the blow a little if you’re getting on at around $1.80, which is where the Danish books had them five days out.

I’ll go 2-1 Norway.

Norway to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $2.90

Both halves of this have evidence going for them.

Norway scored in every World Cup game they played and 23 times in four home qualifiers, so that end of it doesn’t worry me. Denmark have found the net in four of their last five, and with Hojlund up front against a defence that was breached in all six games in North America, the visitors should get at least one.

Norway’s last five games have all produced three goals or more. Denmark are usually cagey on the road, I’ll grant you, but they’ll be chasing at some stage here and that suits the bet.

At $2.90 it’s a price I’m comfortable with on the best legal sports betting sites available in New Zealand.